Rory Sutherland – Are We Now Too Impatient to Be Intelligent? | Nudgestock 2024

The speaker discusses the pitfalls of prioritizing speed and efficiency over meaningful experiences and human-centric approaches. Using anecdotes and examples, they illustrate how modern society often sacrifices quality and satisfaction for the sake of haste, such as in transportation, communication, and service industries. They argue that this focus on speed can lead to suboptimal outcomes and diminished well-being. The speaker emphasizes the importance of balancing fast and slow processes, suggesting that some tasks and interactions derive their value from the time and effort invested in them, advocating for a more thoughtful approach to time management and technology use.

• The joke about the advertising professionals and the genie highlights the issue of prioritizing urgent tasks over important ones.
• This analogy suggests that focusing on short-term goals can negatively impact long-term success and well-being.

"We've sometimes allowed the urgent to actually drown out the important. The short-term consideration drowns out the long-term consideration."

• Emphasizes the tendency to prioritize immediate tasks over long-term, significant goals.

"In the process, rather like that account man, we may also be ruining it for everybody else."

• Suggests that focusing on urgent tasks can have broader negative implications for others.

• The difference between speed and time savings is significant at lower speeds but negligible at higher speeds.
• Accelerating from 10 mph to 30 mph saves substantial time, but speeding from 70 mph to 80 mph saves minimal time.
• This concept can influence decisions in daily life, such as driving habits and transportation choices.

"If you're going 10 miles or 20 miles or 30 miles, there's a really big time saving to be gained by going at 30 mph rather than 20 mph."

• Highlights the substantial time savings at lower speeds.

"If you Accelerate from 80 to 90, you basically save a minute."

• Illustrates the minimal time savings at higher speeds.

• High-speed rail may not be the most efficient solution for saving time over long distances.
• The focus on speed and efficiency often overlooks more enjoyable and potentially beneficial alternatives.

"Very high-speed rail is kind of dumb because for very high-speed rail to save you any time, you have to be traveling the kind of distance where to be honest, you might as well go by plane."

• Critiques the practicality of high-speed rail for long distances.

"The right question for high-speed rail is how do we make the train journey between London and Manchester so enjoyable people feel stupid going by car."

• Suggests that improving the travel experience could be more effective than focusing solely on speed.

• Travel algorithms often prioritize speed and efficiency over cost and experience.
• There is an inherent bias in these algorithms, assuming users always prefer the fastest route.

"All rail ticket buying applications basically assume that you're in a hurry."

• Points out the assumption of speed preference in travel algorithms.

"Google Maps refuses to offer scenic routes because they might be biased."

• Highlights the bias in route optimization, which prioritizes speed over scenic or safer routes.

• Engineering solutions tend to focus on measurable metrics like speed and capacity.
• Creative solutions, like those from Disney, would prioritize user experience and enjoyment.

"What would happen if you hadn't given the brief to a load of engineering firms who immediately focused on speed, time, distance, capacity? What if you had given the brief to Disney instead?"

• Posits that creative firms would approach the problem differently, focusing on user satisfaction.

"Business people, governments, politicians aren't looking to solve problems; they're looking to win arguments."

• Critiques the focus on winning arguments rather than finding the best solutions.

• Open-ended questions lead to better problem-solving but are less favored because they don't easily win arguments.
• Decision-making often defaults to simpler, quantifiable metrics to avoid subjective judgment.

"The way you win an argument is you pretend that what should be an open-ended question with many possible right answers is a high school maths problem with a single right answer."

• Explains the tendency to simplify complex problems to win arguments.

"You solve for the right answer using High School maths and then nobody can argue with you because apparently you haven't made a decision; you've simply followed the data."

• Critiques the reliance on data to avoid subjective decision-making and judgment.

• The subjective experience of time can be manipulated to improve user satisfaction without changing the actual duration.
• Example: The Uber map reduces the uncertainty of waiting for a taxi, improving the quality of the wait.
• People are more uneasy about the uncertainty and lack of trust rather than the actual waiting time.

"The Uber map doesn't change how long you wait for the taxi; it changes the quality of the wait in time by reducing uncertainty."

• Reducing uncertainty in waiting time enhances the emotional experience of the wait.

"Although humans might say 'I don't like waiting for a taxi,' what actually makes them uneasy is the uncertainty of the arrival and the lack of trust."

• The emotional discomfort in waiting is more about uncertainty than the actual time spent waiting.

• Advertising can rebrand time to turn a weakness into a strength.
• Example: Guinness turned the long pouring time into a positive aspect, creating anticipation.

"Good things come to those who wait. What was the one downside of Guinness? Bartenders hated it because it took ages to pour."

• The long pouring time was turned into a marketing advantage, creating a positive anticipation.

• Breaking up the day into smaller chunks can destroy productivity, even if the total time remains the same.
• Instantaneous communication (like email) has created a productivity disaster by requiring constant attention.

"The mere consciousness of an engagement will sometimes worry a whole day."

• Awareness of upcoming engagements can disrupt the entire day's productivity.

"One of the worst mistakes we ever made was making email instantaneous; we should have built in a 2-hour buffer."

• Instantaneous email has created a constant need to check for urgent messages, disrupting productivity.

• Some people enjoy their commute time, using it as a decompression period between work and home.
• Transport models often assume travel time is always a disutility, ignoring the possibility that people might prefer slower commutes.

"Quite a lot of people enjoy commuting; they enjoy the commute home much more than the commute to work."

• Commute time can be enjoyable and serve as a decompression period.

"People actually live a bit further from work than they optimally should to create a kind of chronological buffer."

• People may choose longer commutes to create a buffer between work and home life.

• Optimization models often ignore human preferences to preserve the integrity of the model.
• There is a tendency to codify decisions into algorithms to avoid blame, which removes human psychology from the equation.

"Optimization models actually trump human preference. People who want to win the argument with the model are prepared to ignore human truths."

• Models often prioritize numerical optimization over human experience and preferences.

"If you can reduce decision-making to an algorithm, you avoid the risk of blame."

• Codifying decisions into algorithms removes ambiguity and accountability.

• The normalization of video conferencing has changed how we work, but little thought is given to its optimal use.
• Coordination in the use of video conferencing can enhance its benefits and reduce its downsides.

"Virtually no time is spent discussing how we best use this technology. The assumption is that if we each use it optimally for ourselves, it will be optimal for the system as a whole."

• Lack of coordinated use of video conferencing can lead to inefficiencies.

"If you want to optimize the system, you have to sub-optimize the parts."

• System optimization requires coordinated sub-optimization of individual parts.

• Rapid switching between tasks or processes is inefficient and can be catastrophically so.
• The design of algorithms should consider switching costs to improve efficiency.

"Every time you switch from one process to another, you basically lose efficiency."

• Frequent task switching leads to loss of efficiency.

"Any use of human time or computing time involving rapid switching is inefficient."

• Rapid switching is inherently inefficient and should be minimized.

• Initial Perception of Technology:
  • New technologies often start as options providing convenience and choice.
  • Example: Early railways were seen as a way to save travel time and increase leisure.

"Imagine how much leisure we'll have if we can get to San Francisco in 2 and 1 half days rather than 2 weeks."

• Shift from Option to Obligation:
  • Technologies can transition from being optional to obligatory.
  • Example: Railways initially offered flexibility but later became a standard expectation.

"Unfortunately that information actually became widely known and you were expected to turn up in two days."

• Universal Behaviors:
  • When behaviors become universal, they affect everyone, often negatively.
  • Example: The widespread use of parking apps has become burdensome.

"Four in five motorists want to get rid of parking apps...because they went from being an option to being an obligation."

• Social Acceleration:
  • The acceleration of social norms can lead to dissatisfaction and a feeling of being unoptimized.
  • Example: Constantly photographing concerts detracts from the experience for both audience and performers.

"The behavior of everybody around you is basically up the concert...the performers...say we used to be performing to a live crowd now it basically feels as if we're just doing something to be sucked into people's telephones."

• Concept of Social Acceleration:
  • The Industrial Revolution initiated a trend of accelerating social changes.
  • This acceleration has led to an explosion of choices, often leaving people feeling unsatisfied.

"The acceleration of things has in a way made us miserable because our choices are no longer sufficiently limited that we feel we can accomplish everything we want."

• Cultural References:
  • Art and slogans often reflect a longing for the past and a slower pace.
  • Example: Turner's painting "Rain, Steam, and Speed" and slogans like "Make America Great Again."

"Turner's rail...Reign them and speed...a painting exactly about that issue."

• SCARF Model:
  • Technologies and rapid changes can diminish status, certainty, autonomy, relationships, and fairness.
  • This leads to a sense of misery and dissatisfaction.

"A massive acceleration of things combined with an automation of things...makes us miserable because it diminishes our status...destroys our sense of certainty...reduces autonomy...and massively attacks fairness."

• Human Brain's Flexibility:
  • The human brain can process the same situation in different ways, unlike mathematical models.
  • Example: Long train journeys can be seen as either tedious or enjoyable.

"The great thing about the human brain is it can process the same thing in two different ways...a mathematical model can never cope with that."

• Cultural Politeness in Communication:
  • Different cultures have varying perceptions of politeness related to time.
  • Example: Fast speech in New York vs. slow speech in the American South.

"In New York, you speak quickly because you respect the value of the other person's time...in the South, you speak slowly because you want to respect the person by showing how much of your own time you're prepared to give to them."

• Union of Opposites:
  • Human psychology often contains opposite behaviors that achieve the same end.
  • Example: Scarcity vs. ubiquity in marketing.

"Everybody has one of these so it must be good or not many people have one of these so it must be good."

• Check-in Experiences:
  • Both automated and personalized check-in experiences can be valuable, depending on context.

"There are two great ways to check into a hotel...one of them is totally automated...the other one is where someone takes you up to the room and makes you a cup of tea."

• Self-Checkouts:
  • Self-checkouts can be beneficial as an option but burdensome as an obligation.
  • The value of an activity can depend on the time and process involved.

"As an option, self-checkouts are great...as an obligation, they're bad because sometimes the time spent in the process is where the value comes from."

• Shopping Experiences:
  • Inefficient shopping methods, like farmer's markets, can be enjoyable because they offer a different experience.

"People on a Saturday love nothing better than to shop in the most inefficient way possible...that's basically what a farmer's market is."

• Operational Efficiency:
  • Starbucks implemented a policy to ensure baristas focus on one drink at a time to enhance customer experience.

"Starbucks actually forced people...stop making two drinks at once."

This exhaustive study guide covers the key themes and ideas discussed in the transcript, providing a comprehensive overview of the impact of accelerated technologies, social norms, cultural differences, and human psychology.

• Deliberate slowing down can enhance customer experience by making the service feel more personalized and less like a production line.
• Example: Limiting baristas to making only two drinks at once to maintain the handmade feel of coffee.

"They actually deliberately slowed down the process because they realized that the parallel processing of coffee was destroying the experience for the consumer because they didn't feel they were getting a handmade coffee."

• Explanation: Slowing down the coffee-making process improves customer perception by making the experience feel more personalized.

• The conflict between needing speed in certain contexts (e.g., catching a train) and appreciating a crafted experience in others.
• Idea for a chain of coffee shops at railway stations called "Flat White" where speed is prioritized.

"If I've got to catch the 647, I don't want to be queuing behind some tosser who wants to make an iced-based drink."

• Explanation: In time-sensitive situations, speed takes precedence over the crafted experience.

• Manufacturing efficiency has drastically reduced the cost of goods, while service costs have increased because they are time-dependent.
• This shift explains why some goods are cheap (e.g., TVs) while services (e.g., childcare) are expensive.

"Manufactured goods where you can enjoy extraordinary efficiencies of production have massively reduced in cost, and services, which are time-dependent, have become more and more expensive."

• Explanation: The cost dynamics between goods and services have shifted due to differences in efficiency gains.

• Some products require a slower, more detailed sales process to persuade consumers effectively.
• Example: A 30-minute sales demonstration for an expensive kitchen tap.

"They actually gave me a 30-minute sales demonstration to my family over Zoom from their showroom in Manchester."

• Explanation: A detailed and time-consuming sales process can be more effective for high-value products.

• Advertising effectiveness is often linked to the time and effort invested in the medium.
• The drive for efficiency in advertising can be counterproductive.

"I think there's a fundamental correlation between the expense of a medium, the amount of time and effort that gets invested into an act of persuasion, and how persuasive it is."

• Explanation: More effortful advertising methods can be more persuasive than quick, low-cost options.

• Personalized, effortful communication can have a significant impact on decision-making.
• Example: A handwritten letter persuading homeowners to sell their houses.

"A life decision as momentous as do we want to sell our house is changed by a handwritten letter."

• Explanation: Personalized and effortful communication can lead to significant outcomes.

• The process of creating something (e.g., an essay or an ad campaign) is often more valuable than the final product.
• AI shortcuts can bypass the valuable learning and questioning process involved in creation.

"The value wasn't in the essay; the actual end product is worthless. What's valuable is the effort you had to put in to produce the essay."

• Explanation: The learning and effort involved in creation are more valuable than the final product itself.

• Questioning the assumption that faster AI interactions are always better.
• Considering the benefits of slower, more deliberate AI processes for decision-making and creativity.

"Would it be interesting to be able to say to an AI, 'Look, over the next three or four months, can you just give me some ideas about holidays in Greece?'"

• Explanation: Slower AI interactions could allow for more thoughtful and refined decision-making.

• Recognizing areas where slowing down is beneficial for sanity and productivity.
• Challenging the optimization models that prioritize speed.

"I think there are things we need to deliberately and consciously slow down for our own sanity and actually for our own productivity."

• Explanation: Deliberate slowing down can improve mental well-being and productivity.

• The overarching theme is the balance between efficiency and the value of time and effort.
• Recognizing when to prioritize speed and when to appreciate the process.

"The general assumption driven by these optimization models is always that faster is better. I think there are things we need to deliberately and consciously slow down for our own sanity and actually for our own productivity."

• Explanation: Challenging the assumption that faster is always better can lead to more balanced and effective outcomes.