John Gray: Thoughts after liberalism

The conversation features John Gray, a writer and philosopher, discussing the decline of liberalism and its implications for society. Gray argues that the era of liberalism, characterized by tolerance and strong institutions, has ended, giving way to more illiberal practices such as cancel culture and de-platforming, which stifle freedom of expression. He critiques the technocratic approach to issues like climate change, advocating instead for pragmatic adaptation strategies. Gray also highlights the geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S., suggesting that economic interdependence complicates potential conflicts. He concludes with a call to create new spaces for free thought and inquiry, moving beyond the outdated liberal framework.

• John Gray discusses the decline of liberalism, asserting that the era of liberal civilization based on tolerance has passed.
• The notion that liberal values would become universally accepted post-Cold War has been falsified in two ways: emergence of alternative societal models (e.g., China) and the transformation within liberal societies themselves.
• Practices such as cancellation, deplatforming, and debanking have undermined freedom of thought and expression, which were once taken for granted in liberal societies.

"Enclaves of Freedom persist but a liberal civilization based on the practice of Tolerance has passed into history."

• Gray asserts that while pockets of liberalism remain, the broader civilization based on these principles has ended.

"After the end of the Cold War in 1989, 1990, 1991, many people believed that liberal values would become universally accepted... that has been falsified in two ways."

• The expectation that liberal democracy would become the only legitimate regime has been disproven by the rise of other societal models and changes within liberal societies themselves.

"Practices of cancellation, deplatforming, the debanking have developed whereby people with views that are regarded as beyond the progressive pale... have really had a very chilling effect on freedom of thought and expression."

• The rise of practices that limit freedom of thought and expression has significantly impacted the liberal values of tolerance and open discourse.

• In current liberal societies, restrictions on freedom of speech are imposed not by authoritarian governments but by civil institutions such as universities, arts associations, and museums.
• This spontaneous imposition of ideological conformity by civil institutions represents a profound change in Western liberal societies.

"The restraints on freedom of speech and expression that exist in formerly liberal societies are not imposed by a dictatorial or authoritarian government... they're imposed by civil institutions themselves."

• Unlike authoritarian regimes, the restrictions in liberal societies come from within civil institutions, reflecting a significant shift in societal dynamics.

"Practices of cancellation, deplatforming, the debanking have developed whereby people with views that are regarded as beyond the progressive pale... have really had a very chilling effect on freedom of thought and expression."

• These practices have created an environment where freedom of thought and expression is severely curtailed, even within institutions that traditionally upheld these values.

• The private realm where individuals can freely express their views is shrinking in Western societies, similar to the conditions in totalitarian regimes.
• The fear of repercussions for expressing dissenting views extends to private conversations, emails, and other forms of communication.

"One of the key features of totalitarian communism... is that the private realm has shrunk."

• The diminishing space for private expression in Western societies mirrors the conditions in totalitarian regimes, indicating a significant erosion of personal freedoms.

"If you say something in a common room or a canteen or a meeting or walking with someone in the street, it could be that it would be held against you."

• The fear of being penalized for expressing dissenting views in private settings highlights the pervasive atmosphere of surveillance and self-censorship.

• The moral culpability of individuals conforming to the progressive consensus in liberal societies is greater than in communist countries, where non-conformity had severe consequences for family members.
• In contemporary liberal societies, conforming to the progressive consensus is primarily motivated by career considerations rather than survival.

"Morally, I think many of the people who adopt and conform to the Progressive consensus here are more morally culpable than in communist countries."

• The moral responsibility of conforming to ideological norms is higher in liberal societies because the consequences are less severe compared to totalitarian regimes.

"It's simply a matter of career... people are more attached to careers than they are to anything else."

• The primary motivation for conforming to the progressive consensus in liberal societies is the preservation of one's career, rather than the extreme pressures faced in totalitarian regimes.

• Earlier generations of liberals understood the necessity of maintaining a liberal society through political action, compromise, and strategic alliances.
• The current trend of taking more issues out of politics to establish them as uncontestable rights has led to the politicization of judicial institutions, particularly in the United States.

"One feature of earlier generations of liberals is that they understood that a liberal Society needed to be maintained politically."

• The maintenance of a liberal society requires continuous political engagement, compromise, and strategic maneuvering.

"If you can establish them as rights legal rights or if you can establish them in some way whereby they're they're just beyond contestation that's what they wanted to do."

• The attempt to take contentious issues out of the political arena by establishing them as rights has led to significant challenges, including the politicization of the judiciary.

• The next stage in the erosion of liberalism is the transformation of politics into a battle of friends and enemies, as described by Carl Schmitt.
• This shift from politics as a means of compromise to politics as war undermines the fundamental principles of liberal democracy.

"Politics becomes War which is what politics if you like is an alternative to war."

• The transformation of politics into a battle of friends and enemies represents a fundamental departure from the principles of liberal democracy.

"The next stage I think In America which probably if I had to guess would be after the next presidential election... will not be accepted as legitimate by about a quarter to a third of the population."

• The increasing polarization and lack of acceptance of political outcomes in the United States indicate a move towards a Schmittian conception of politics, where compromise is no longer possible.

• The liberal civilization is perceived to be in decline.
• Spaces where free speech was possible are diminishing.
• The focus should be on creating and maintaining enclaves where free speech is protected.

"These processes taken together, I think, have eclipsed what was the liberal civilization in a fairly conclusive way. I don't see it coming back."

• The speaker believes the decline of liberal civilization is irreversible.

"You could say pretty well what you wanted anywhere; you can't anymore."

• The loss of spaces for free speech is highlighted as a significant issue.

• There is a possibility of civil warfare in America, not necessarily a traditional civil war.
• Disputes may be fought out in various ways, including threats.

"There could be a protracted period in which people fight out their disputes in one way or another and threaten each other."

• The nature of potential civil conflicts is discussed.

• A major conflict might force people to negotiate and bring back a semblance of liberal society.
• However, war is generally not seen as redemptive.

"There would require some big conflict or it would require some defining event for people to feel coherent enough to want to try and negotiate with each other again."

• The idea that a significant conflict could lead to negotiation is explored.

"War is not generally redemptive."

• The speaker is skeptical about war leading to positive outcomes.

• The possibility of China acting on Taiwan soon is discussed.
• The next U.S. presidential election is seen as a potential period of maximum uncertainty, making it a possible time for Chinese action.
• Economic interdependence between the U.S. and China complicates the scenario.

"I still think that in the next 18 months, it's not a firm prediction, but I can see a quite a realistic scenario in which the Chinese leadership might act."

• The speaker predicts potential Chinese action on Taiwan within the next 18 months.

"In China, corporate power is a vehicle or an instrument of state power."

• The difference between Western and Chinese state capitalism is highlighted.

"There are elections in Taiwan, and they might want a political way of setting in motion a process of unification without military action."

• Political strategies for unification with Taiwan are considered.

• The economic interdependence between the U.S. and China is significant.
• Many American companies have substantial investments in China, making conflict undesirable for economic reasons.

"Over three quarters of American Medicine medical supplies especially antibiotics come from China."

• The extent of economic interdependence is illustrated with examples.

"There'll be strong resistance in America from important economic interests at actually engaging in a conflict with China."

• Economic interests are likely to resist conflict with China due to potential financial losses.

• New media, represented by figures like Elon Musk, is gaining influence over traditional media.
• People are turning to alternative media sources due to mistrust in traditional media.

"What Musk represents is the Triumph of the New Media over the old media."

• The shift from traditional to new media is discussed.

"The other media are not trusted, and when they're not trusted as deeply as they are now mistrusted, people turn to alternatives."

• The mistrust in traditional media is a driving factor for the rise of new media.

• Conventional green policies are criticized for being implemented without proper infrastructure or technology.
• The economic costs and feasibility of these policies are questioned.
• Adaptation to climate change is suggested as a more practical approach than current green policies.

"What I am very skeptical about is net zero and the kind of conventional green policies that are being launched."

• Skepticism about the effectiveness of current green policies is expressed.

"We should be focusing everything we've got not on having an infinitesimal impact on global carbon levels but on policies of adaptation."

• The speaker advocates for focusing on adaptation to climate change.

"The idea that in Britain or in Europe these programs could ever possibly work is a bit like suffering from cancer and using candle therapy."

• The impracticality of green policies in Europe and Britain is highlighted.

• The current era is characterized as an age of political tragedy.
• The notion of political tragedy is discussed in the context of global and national issues.

"We concluded that we were in the age of tragedy, that we'd entered an age of political tragedy."

• The concept of political tragedy is introduced.

"I'm not too sure about that anymore; I think we've entered an age of political farce."

• The speaker suggests a shift from tragedy to farce in political terms.

• The speaker discusses the absurdity in current climate policies, particularly focusing on Germany's shift from nuclear power to renewables, which has led to an increased reliance on coal.
• This shift is seen as not just tragic but absurd, reflecting a broader trend of absurdity in Western society.
• The speaker criticizes the inability to engage in meaningful debate on these topics, as people often react emotionally rather than rationally.

"In Germany, the result of their closing down of nuclear and going for renewables has been a reliance on the dirtiest kind of coal. Well, that is tragic, but it's even more than tragic; it's completely absurd."

• Highlights the counterproductive outcome of Germany's climate policy.
• Emphasizes the absurdity of increasing coal reliance despite aiming for cleaner energy.

"If you put these arguments difficult to do because they start shouting at you or they start crying, or they can't get up in the morning."

• Points out the emotional reactions that hinder rational debate on climate policy.

• The speaker references Philip Rieff's interpretation of Freud, emphasizing that Freud aimed to convert "hysterical misery to the everyday suffering of normal human life."
• Rieff's book, "The Triumph of the Therapeutic," is mentioned to illustrate the shift towards a therapeutic model in society, where people seek closure and self-fulfillment rather than facing hard truths.

"Freud said his aim in therapy was not to enable people to realize themselves or to achieve happiness; that was not his aim. His aim was to change hysterical misery to the everyday suffering of normal human life."

• Emphasizes Freud's realistic approach to human suffering.
• Highlights the shift from seeking happiness to managing everyday suffering.

"People started using psychoanalytical terms. What do you want out of this? Well, I want closure. The thing about Freud is there's never closure; closure is impossible for Freud."

• Critiques the modern therapeutic approach that seeks closure.
• Stresses Freud's belief that fundamental aspects of human nature cannot be changed.

• The speaker mentions James Lovelock's difficulty in securing funding for empirical climate research, which underscores the preference for models over empirical data.
• Lovelock's view that climate models are backward-looking and may underestimate the speed of climate change is highlighted.

"Lovelock told me not long before he died that he tried to get some money for a practical experiment to get empirical factual data about climate change. He said, 'I asked for too little. I asked for 250,000. If I asked for 250 million, I might have got it.'"

• Illustrates the challenges in obtaining funding for empirical research.
• Criticizes the preference for models over empirical data.

"His view was that the models were backward-looking and were probably underestimating the speed of climate change, not overestimating it."

• Highlights Lovelock's concern about the limitations of climate models.
• Suggests the need for more empirical research to understand climate change accurately.

• The speaker argues that technocratic pragmatism fails because it relies on conventional thinking and methods that may not address the real problems.
• The imposition of policies like ultra-low emission zones (ULEZ) without considering their practical impact on people's lives is criticized.
• The speaker suggests that such policies can lead to public resistance and even anarchy.

"What technocratic pragmatism means is approaching what are carefully defined problems defined by conventional thinking and applying some conventional methods."

• Critiques the limitations of technocratic pragmatism.
• Emphasizes the need for innovative approaches to problem-solving.

"If you impose a ULEZ scheme in an area where there's practically no public transport, that has a severe impact on people trying to get to work."

• Highlights the practical challenges of implementing ULEZ policies.
• Points out the potential for public resistance to such policies.

• The speaker expresses a sliver of hope for political change through electoral reform, which could lead to a more diverse and representative political landscape.
• The example of New Zealand's electoral reform is cited as a model for how new ideas can filter into politics.

"I'm hoping for a hung parliament. If it doesn't get a working majority, there's a realistic chance of electoral reform."

• Expresses hope for political change through electoral reform.
• Suggests that a hung parliament could lead to a more diverse political landscape.

"In New Zealand, when they changed their electoral system back in the '90s, parties would split. They won't split unless there's PR. If there's PR, they'll split."

• Cites New Zealand's electoral reform as an example of successful political change.
• Emphasizes the potential for a more representative political system through proportional representation (PR).

• The speaker reflects on Fritz Stern's work on the failure of illiberalism in pre-1933 Germany, noting that a large part of the population is attracted to coercion.
• Despite this attraction, the speaker argues that liberalism remains the least worst outcome.

"For all the attraction of illiberalism, there is a terrifyingly large part of the population that is attracted to coercion. Ultimately, it always fails. Liberalism is the least worst of all outcomes."

• Highlights the persistent attraction to coercion among the population.
• Emphasizes the resilience and relative superiority of liberalism.

• The speaker discusses historical examples of human decency, such as the refusal of the Danish King to collaborate during WWII and the solidarity of British soldiers with Jews.
• These examples are used to illustrate that human decency exists but can be overwhelmed by larger forces.

"In the case of Denmark, I think the King was important, wasn't he? He refused to collaborate."

• Highlights the role of leadership in acts of human decency.
• Uses the Danish King as an example of resistance to coercion.

"During the Second World War, when British soldiers were told to stand in the line and the Jews would stand forward, they all stood forward."

• Illustrates solidarity and bravery among British soldiers.
• Emphasizes the potential for human decency in dire situations.

• The speaker criticizes the implementation of radical market policies in post-communist Russia, arguing that a hybrid approach would have been more effective.
• The lack of institutional and civil society foundations in Russia is cited as a reason why radical market policies led to disaster.

"I was a critic of radical market policies in post-communist Russia because it had been communist for 70 years, and the only entrepreneurship was often criminal."

• Critiques the application of radical market policies in Russia.
• Highlights the need for a more nuanced approach considering Russia's historical context.

"The danger of saying only liberalism works is you focus everywhere on trying to get a liberal model rather than getting something more mixed or more realistic and less humanly costly."

• Warns against the one-size-fits-all approach to liberalism.
• Advocates for a more realistic and context-sensitive approach to economic and political reforms.

• The speaker discusses the concept of epistemic humility and its potential to restore civil debate within universities.
• While supportive of initiatives to promote civil debate, the speaker notes that these efforts reflect a broader decline in basic decency and fair play.

"What used to be good manners and fair play and decency is now called epistemic humility."

• Critiques the need for formal programs to teach basic decency.
• Highlights the decline in civil discourse and the need for initiatives to restore it.

• The idea that reasonable people can have divergent beliefs and values has been lost.
• The Brexit debate lacked tolerance and was characterized by animosity.
• Brexit was an issue that reasonable people could have profoundly different opinions on.

"I think the fundamental idea that reasonable people can have Divergent beliefs and values has been lost."

• The speaker laments the erosion of the principle that people can hold different, yet reasonable, beliefs.

"My view was that it was an issue that reasonable people could differ profoundly on."

• Brexit was seen as a complex issue with valid arguments on both sides.

"The best argument against Brexit was put by one of my friends... because I think the British political class simply isn't up to making Brexit work."

• A friend argued that Brexit would fail due to the incompetence of the British political class, a point the speaker found compelling.

"Yes but it's I think it's um it's been botched and bungled and aborted to the extent to which uh it's hard to see how it can be saved now."

• The speaker remains pro-Brexit but acknowledges its poor implementation.

• The speaker is a dissident on radical economic programs.
• There is an argument for taking public utilities back into public ownership.
• Privatization in sectors like water, railways, and banks has not been successful.

"I think there's a good argument for rationalizing or taking back into some other kind of public ownership various Public Utilities."

• The speaker believes public ownership of utilities may be more effective.

"It hasn't worked in water, it hasn't worked in Railway, it hasn't worked in the whole VAR the banks."

• Privatization has failed in several key sectors.

• The speaker discusses the distinction between hyper-liberalism and post-liberal paganism.
• Christianity historically provided a moral framework against killing.
• The rise of assisted suicide in places like Canada is troubling and reflects a shift in societal values.

"What stopped you mean there are a lot of people who say this is true about the decadent liberalism or the hyperbolic liberalism we've got now."

• The speaker notes criticisms of modern liberalism as being excessive or decadent.

"One of the advantages of Christianity over paganism in the early ancient world is that when there were plagues, the Christians didn't all run away."

• Christianity historically promoted communal support during crises, unlike paganism.

"The Canadian example is very troubling... why so many more people are processed into this semi-voluntary assisted suicide."

• The speaker is disturbed by the high rates of assisted suicide in Canada compared to other regions.

• Tolerance was historically a solution for the dissonance in human values and beliefs.
• Modern society struggles with tolerance, often viewing differing opinions as stupidity or wickedness.
• The shift away from Christian and theistic values has impacted societal norms around issues like suicide.

"That's why we need tolerance but of course we say well solution to that is we get rid of the people who don't have the right opinions."

• The speaker emphasizes the ongoing need for tolerance in a diverse society.

"One of the key things that happens in a post-Christian Society... is that suicide becomes an option."

• The decline of Christian values has made suicide a more accepted option in society.

• The ideology in universities has shifted from poststructuralism to hyper-liberalism.
• Poststructuralism created a philosophical vacuum, leading to the rise of new, rigid ideologies.
• The current ideological climate in universities is seen as a continuation of liberalism's evolution.

"The ideology of the time was poststructuralism and the deconstruction over everything."

• Universities were once dominated by poststructuralist thought.

"I interpret hyper-liberalism as a metamorphosis within liberalism when the Matrix of beliefs that it emerged from actually are dropped."

• Hyper-liberalism is viewed as an internal evolution of liberalism, not an external influence.

• Hyper-liberalism is most prevalent in English-speaking countries.
• The phenomenon is not universal and is often viewed with contempt or incredulous glee by non-Western countries.
• The paradox of Brexit supporters wanting to align with other English-speaking countries, which are the most hyper-liberal.

"Why is what I called nor the mov why are they strongest in the anglosphere in English speaking count why is that?"

• The speaker questions why hyper-liberalism is most prevalent in English-speaking countries.

"People in China... regard it partly with contempt and partly with incredulous glee because it means one of their Chief rivals is deconstructing itself before their very eyes."

• Hyper-liberalism is viewed negatively by some non-Western countries.

• Hyper-liberalism is partly driven by the economic insecurity of the professional class.
• There is also a deeper spiritual and civilizational crisis contributing to these movements.
• The cognitive elite is increasingly redundant, leading to a search for new roles as societal guardians.

"I interpret it in the book as partly a Revolt of the professional bousy against their own superfluity."

• Hyper-liberalism is partly a reaction to the professional class feeling increasingly redundant.

"The cognitive elite doesn't know anything most of it... it moves out into the world and finds that the opportunities for that are not infinite and they're shrinking."

• The professional class faces shrinking opportunities, contributing to the rise of hyper-liberalism.

• The speaker believes that traditional liberalism cannot be revived.
• New spaces for free thought and inquiry need to be created.
• Organizations like Unheard and New Statesman are examples of practicing these new forms of inquiry.

"I do think that particular civilization is over the conservative strategy the liberal conservative strategy is saying let's go back to that."

• The speaker believes returning to traditional liberalism is hopeless.

"You’ve got to do something new something fresh something which tries to recreate spaces of free thought and inquiry."

• New, innovative approaches are needed to foster free thought and inquiry.

"Maybe some people unheard and other organization new states where I write they're practicing this."

• Organizations like Unheard and New Statesman are examples of fostering new spaces for inquiry.