Brian Klaas | How To Think About An Unlimited Future Of Possibilities - Flukes, Chance, Randomness & Nassim Taleb

In this in-depth conversation, global politics professor and author Brian Klaas discusses the profound impact of randomness and chance on our lives, as explored in his book "Fluke." Klaas delves into the invisible pivot points that shape our existence, such as the unforeseen consequences of a family tragedy over a century ago that led to his own birth. He emphasizes the importance of recognizing the role of luck in our successes and failures, challenging the conventional wisdom that attributes outcomes solely to personal merit. Klaas also touches on the implications of his findings for empathy, free will, and societal structures, advocating for more experimentation in policy-making and a reevaluation of media as critical infrastructure for informed democracy.

• Brian Klaas is a professor in global politics, author, podcast host, and creator of a substantial newsletter.
• His work spans multiple mediums, all driven by his personal interests.
• His new book, "Fluke," focuses on the role of randomness and chance in life, reminiscent of the works of Nassim Taleb.
• The discussion took place in person in Winchester.

"His name is Brian Klaas. He is a professor in global politics. He's the author of several books. He's the host of a really good podcast, and he's also the creator of a huge sub stack."

The quote introduces Brian Klaas, highlighting his professional background and the mediums he works in, which include academia, writing, podcasting, and newsletters.

• Invisible pivot points are the unseen factors that shape our lives and futures.
• These small changes accumulate and result in profound consequences.
• Brian Klaas shares a personal story of an invisible pivot point from his family history.

"What we can't see are what I call invisible pivot points. And those are the things that shaped our lives that we're completely unaware of."

The quote explains the concept of invisible pivot points as factors that significantly influence our lives without our awareness.

• Brian Klaas's book "Fluke" explores the unpredictable nature of life's trajectory.
• The book includes personal anecdotes and historical thought experiments to illustrate the impact of randomness.
• Klaas discusses the hypothetical scenario of killing baby Hitler to explore historical causality.

"Fluke is about making sense of the random walk, forks in the road, impossible to predict."

This quote summarizes the theme of "Fluke," which is understanding the randomness in the paths life takes.

• Klaas discusses his belief in the lack of free will and the role of uncontrollable factors in shaping identity.
• He expresses increased empathy for those struggling due to an understanding of these factors.
• The concept of the lottery of birth is used to illustrate the impact of birth circumstances on life chances.

"I personally don't believe in free will. I think there's growing scientific evidence to lead us to that conclusion."

The quote conveys Klaas's stance on the debate over free will, suggesting that he believes our actions are determined by factors beyond our control.

• The book "Fluke" includes discussions on neuroscience and its implications for understanding human behavior and moral responsibility.
• Klaas questions the distinction between healthy and unhealthy brain tissue in terms of agency.
• He predicts that neuroscience will challenge traditional concepts of free will in the 21st century.

"Why do we say that healthy brain tissue equals choice, but unhealthy brain tissue doesn't?"

This quote challenges the conventional view of free will by questioning why we attribute agency to "healthy" brain function but not to "unhealthy" brain conditions.

• Klaas believes that every action, no matter how small, is significant and alters the future.
• He uses the metaphor of a thread in a tapestry to illustrate the interconnectedness of individual lives and actions.
• The book encourages experimentation and appreciation for the importance of human action.

"I think that every action, the snooze button, whether I hit it in the morning, matters in the trajectory of my life and in the future of the world in some way."

The quote emphasizes the importance of seemingly insignificant actions, suggesting that every choice we make has a ripple effect on the future.

• Klaas insists on the unpredictability of the future and the fallacy of trying to predict it based on past experiences.
• He references Nassim Taleb's work to support the idea that we cannot anticipate the infinite possibilities of the future.
• The discussion highlights the importance of embracing randomness and acting ethically despite uncertainty.

"And there's another Taleb quote, but he says, how can we predict a future of infinite possibilities based off a finite experience of the past?"

This quote from Nassim Taleb, referenced by Klaas, encapsulates the idea that the future's vast potential cannot be accurately forecasted using our limited past experiences.

• Predictive models in social sciences may not accurately reflect reality due to the dynamic nature of causality.
• Past experiences may not be reliable for predicting future outcomes, especially in times of significant change.
• The Arab Spring is used as an example to illustrate the limitations of predictive models in political science.
• Theories may appear to be falsified by events, but it could also be that the circumstances have changed, rendering previous models inapplicable.
• Social relationships and their outcomes can be influenced by time, place, and specific moments, unlike consistent chemical reactions.
• Overreliance on models can create an illusion of control and predictability in complex systems.

"If the past and the present have different forms of causality in the sense of different drivers of change, then the past experience might actually be worse than nothing."

• Past experiences may not be useful for understanding the present if the drivers of change have evolved.

"The time, the place, the exact moment of causality can shift outcomes."

• The context in which social interactions occur can significantly alter their outcomes, unlike consistent natural phenomena.

• Models are simplifications of reality that should not be mistaken for reality itself.
• Believing that models are the world can lead to disastrous outcomes due to a false sense of certainty and control.
• Modern society has internalized the false lesson that better models can adequately manage risks and uncertainties.
• Models can be useful in short timeframes, but they are limited and can be dangerous when over-redepended upon.

"The model is not the world. Right. Or the saying is often, yes, and the map is not the territory, this sort of idea."

• Models and maps are simplifications that cannot fully encapsulate the complex realities they represent.

• Economic forecasts, even from reputable institutions like the IMF, have repeatedly failed to predict recessions.
• The inability to predict economic downturns is not due to incompetence but the inherent uncertainty in complex systems.
• The interconnectedness and optimization of modern systems increase the likelihood and impact of unpredictable events.

"In 2016, the Economist analyzed 15 years worth of economic forecasts from the IMF, covering 189 countries. During that period, a country entered a recession 220 separate times... Out of 220 cases, the answer was zero."

• Economic forecasts have a poor track record of predicting recessions, highlighting the limitations of predictive modeling.

• Systems designed with little slack and high optimization are more prone to significant disruptions from minor events.
• The sandpile model of self-organized criticality illustrates how systems can become increasingly vulnerable to collapse.
• The modern world is more contingent due to engineered social systems with minimal resilience.
• Black swan events, as described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, are integral to complex systems rather than aberrations.

"We have built systems that are more contingent and more prone to fluke."

• Modern systems are highly sensitive to disruptions, increasing the potential for widespread consequences from seemingly minor events.

• The world's increased interconnectivity amplifies the effects of local events on a global scale.
• Modern technology allows for rapid dissemination and adoption of new ideas and practices.
• The pandemic demonstrated the profound impact a single event can have on the global population.

"One virus infecting one person upended the lives, the daily lives of billions of people, you know, for years."

• The COVID-19 pandemic is an example of how a single event in an interconnected world can have far-reaching and long-lasting effects.

• Taleb's work, particularly "The Black Swan," challenges the validity of economic and predictive forecasting.
• The author of the podcast is inspired by Taleb's boldness in questioning fundamental assumptions about the world.
• Taleb's critique of conventional wisdom encourages others to question established beliefs within complex systems.

"The entire edifice of economics and predictive forecasting is wrong."

• Taleb's assertion that the foundations of economic forecasting are flawed has influenced the author's perspective on reality and prediction.

• The author feels out of place in the field of political science due to its focus on quantitative models.
• There is a fixation on finding the perfect model to match past data, which overlooks the purpose of improving lives and avoiding catastrophe.
• The author argues for a shift away from predictive modeling towards approaches that better handle uncertainty and complexity.

"I'm a disillusioned social scientist."

• The author expresses dissatisfaction with the current state of political science and its emphasis on quantitative modeling.

• Experimentation is a wise strategy when facing radical uncertainty, inspired by the process of evolution.
• Advisers and gurus who claim to understand complex systems may not provide valuable guidance due to groupthink and confirmation bias.
• Randomness and diversification can lead to better outcomes than directed choices, as demonstrated by the example of hunter-gatherers in Southeast Asia.

"The wisdom of evolution is undirected experimentation."

• Evolutionary biology suggests that undirected experimentation is an effective way to navigate uncertainty and complexity.

• Encouraging experimentation in personal life, business, and public policy can lead to improved outcomes.
• Randomized control trials and a/b testing can help determine effective strategies in complex systems.
• Experimentation can bridge political divides by focusing on outcomes rather than ideologies.

"Experimenting with public policy is just all we should care about."

• The author advocates for experimental approaches to public policy to identify what works best for society.

• Political structures and partisanship make it difficult to adopt experimental approaches to governance.
• There is a need for leadership and communication to overcome these challenges and focus on outcomes.

"Surely every political stripe can agree on that."

• The author suggests that all political parties should be able to agree on the importance of finding effective solutions through experimentation.

• Ethical complexity in conducting challenge trials, especially with high-risk scenarios like COVID-19.
• The balance between gaining persuasive evidence and ethical considerations.
• Importance of minimizing potential harms in experimentation.

"You'd also have to minimize a lot of the potential harms of experimentation because, of course, there's concerns about ethics."

This quote highlights the need to consider the ethical implications and minimize harm when designing experiments, particularly those involving human subjects.

• Cultural and societal influences on the acceptance of scientific studies.
• The challenge of earning trust in experimental outcomes within a "broken" society.
• The role of controlled, well-executed studies in persuading a skeptical public.

"In lots of places, though, they would point to these studies and be like, okay, you know, this works."

The quote emphasizes that well-conducted studies can be convincing to the public, suggesting that the acceptance of scientific findings can vary based on cultural and societal norms.

• The use of natural experiments and policy variations across states as laboratories for testing.
• The difficulty of comparing results from non-randomized control trials due to varying demographics and conditions.
• The importance of leadership in promoting openness to abandoning partisan beliefs for effective solutions.
• The challenge of agreeing on metrics for contentious issues like abortion and anti-poverty measures.

"You have to have a leader who can prime people to say, look, there are a lot of things that we think we know, which we don't."

This quote underscores the need for leadership that encourages a willingness to question assumptions and embrace evidence-based solutions, even when they contradict pre-existing beliefs.

• The disproportionate influence of immovable minorities on political processes.
• The role of institutions in amplifying minority voices.
• The need for broader conversations and reforms in modern democracy.

"There is a minority of people who have very strong anti-abortion views in the United States, 30 to 30% to 35% probably. But they're a significant proportion of the Republican base, and they have captured that political party's viewpoints to such a degree."

This quote illustrates how a relatively small but committed minority can exert significant influence over a political party's stance, affecting national policy and discourse.

• The proposal for using randomized citizen assemblies for advisory opinions on policy.
• The limitations of polls as a measure of public opinion without informed briefing.
• The potential for more valuable feedback from thoughtfully informed citizens.

"If you have, like, a random citizen assembly that can provide advisory opinions, you can say, like, look, we're going to bring in, like, ten experts of different political views who are going to brief you on this idea, and we want to get your take on this."

This quote suggests that informed citizen assemblies could provide more nuanced and valuable insights into policy decisions than traditional polling methods.

• The concept of randomness in producing extreme outliers in certain traits like wealth.
• The misconception that wealth is solely a result of talent, rather than luck.
• The importance of acknowledging the role of luck in success and failure.

"The person who ended up the richest in the world was almost always from the middle level of talent because they kept, you know, they just happened to be the person that got struck by lightning three times."

This quote conveys the idea that luck plays a major role in wealth accumulation, challenging the belief that wealth is purely a result of talent.

• The significant influence of luck in both success and failure.
• The danger of the belief that individuals are solely responsible for their outcomes.
• The need for humility and compassion in attributing success and failure.

"Every success that I have had has been derived to an extraordinary degree from things that were out of my control, that I take no credit for."

This quote reflects on the author's personal experience, acknowledging the substantial impact of luck in their achievements and failures.

• The influence of location and networking on the likelihood of encountering luck.
• The role of randomness in the success of Silicon Valley investors.
• The importance of recognizing the limitations of control over one's success.

"You're going to be more likely to experience an offshoot of randomness in a big populated city where you're hanging out with people in a direction that you want to go."

This quote suggests that positioning oneself in environments with higher activity and connections can increase the chances of benefiting from random opportunities.

• The concept of lock-in, where certain technologies or standards become solidified and persist over time.
• The influence of historical contingencies on current standards and practices.
• Examples of lock-in, such as breed standards for dogs, the standardization of the English language, and the persistence of Quranic Arabic.

"So all these sorts of things happen and create longer staying power by accident."

This quote explains how certain events or decisions, often made arbitrarily or by chance, can have lasting effects on society and culture due to the phenomenon of lock-in.

• The challenges facing media and journalism, including funding models and the impact of AI.
• The potential threat of audience capture in subscription-based models.
• The importance of maintaining journalistic integrity in the face of financial incentives.

"It creates an incentive structure where it's called audience capture, where if you have a partisan audience, you become more partisan, you start writing more extreme stuff."

This quote warns of the risk that journalists and writers may become increasingly partisan to retain their subscriber base, potentially compromising the objectivity and balance of their reporting.

• Modern media incentives are not aligned with societal good.
• Independent journalism faces challenges, including financial incentives that prioritize profit over quality reporting.
• The fragmented media landscape impacts democracy by undermining a shared sense of reality.
• The BBC is cited as a healthier model due to its broad coverage and correction of mistakes, contributing to a more informed public.
• NPR, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC are mentioned as small fragments of the media landscape in the U.S.
• The discussion highlights the importance of informed consent in democracy and the dangers of a media landscape driven by clicks and eyeballs.

"If you're purely trying to make money, there are incentives that exist in the modern media landscape which are not aligned with what's good for society."

This quote emphasizes the misalignment between profit-driven media incentives and societal interests, suggesting that financial motives can compromise the quality and integrity of journalism.

"The profound insight that I think is worth drawing from this problem is that philosophically, democracy is built on a compromise based on a shared sense of reality."

The quote identifies the foundational role of a shared reality in democracy, suggesting that without it, the democratic process is compromised.

"I think the fundamental bedrock of democracy is informed consent of the governed, and that requires journalism."

This quote underlines the necessity of journalism in providing the information necessary for the public to make informed decisions in a democratic society.

• The speaker advocates for state-supported journalism as critical infrastructure for a functioning democracy.
• The BBC's model is discussed as a balance between state funding and editorial independence.
• The conversation suggests that the U.S. is an example of the consequences of a broken information infrastructure.
• The concept of "human spacetime contingency" is introduced to explain how geographic and technological factors intersect with human society.

"Information that informs voter choice is critical infrastructure."

This quote highlights the speaker's view that quality information is as crucial to society as traditional infrastructure like roads and national security.

"Do we want to live in a world where the critical infrastructure of high quality information is subject to profit motive?"

The quote questions the sustainability and ethics of a profit-driven approach to journalism, suggesting that quality information should be safeguarded from commercial pressures.

• Kurt Vonnegut is admired for his fiction that explores complex ideas adjacent to nonfiction topics.
• Bill Bryson is praised for his engaging writing style and ability to make any topic interesting.
• The speaker aspires to write books that are well-researched and engaging, regardless of the subject matter.

"My favorite author of all time is Kurt Vonnegut, who writes fiction, but it's fiction that's informed by ideas that I think are very, very adjacent to everything that I think about in nonfiction."

This quote expresses the speaker's admiration for Vonnegut's ability to weave complex ideas into his fiction work.

"I just have read every Bill Bryson book, and it doesn't matter what it's about. It's just like, it's going to be interesting."

The quote reflects the speaker's respect for Bill Bryson's skill as a writer and his influence on the speaker's own writing aspirations.

• The speaker discusses the influence of geography on the spread of empires and technology, referencing Jared Diamond's continental axis theory.
• Geographical features such as the Sahara desert are identified as barriers to the spread of ideas and empires.
• The speaker argues that economics and political science often overlook geographic and geological factors due to the complexity of incorporating them into quantitative models.

"Technology flowed very, very easily from China to Europe over hundreds of years, for example, whereas it did not flow very easily from Europe to what is now South Africa."

This quote illustrates the impact of geography on the historical spread of technology and ideas, supporting the continental axis theory.

"All of a sudden the historical patterns that we tend to. Oh, well, it's because Alexander the Great was amazing that when you know, well, okay, of that is probably true. Some of it is geography and some of it is battles."

The quote acknowledges that historical events are often a result of both individual greatness and geographical factors, suggesting a more nuanced understanding of history.

• Madagascar is identified as a country with potential due to its unique biodiversity and untapped natural resources.
• The speaker hopes for political stability and development in Madagascar to unlock its potential for eco-tourism and economic growth.
• The discussion touches on the importance of institutions and systems in shaping a country's future, but also recognizes the role of individual actions and chance.

"I'm going to give the country that should have the greatest future, which may not be an accurate prediction. Is Madagascar."

This quote expresses the speaker's optimism for Madagascar's future, despite its current challenges, due to its unique attributes and potential.

"Information that informs voter choice is critical infrastructure. And I think there's a question we have to ask ourselves as a society, which is like, do we want to live in a world where the critical infrastructure of high quality information is subject to profit motive?"

The speaker reiterates the importance of information as critical infrastructure and questions the sustainability of a profit-driven media landscape.