20VC Vinod Khosla on How AI Impacts The Future of Healthcare, Education, Income Equality, GeoPolitics, Music and Climate Change

In a stimulating conversation on "20 VC," host Harry Stebbings interviews Silicon Valley stalwart Vinod Khosla, founder of Khosla Ventures, delving into the transformative impact of AI on sectors like healthcare, education, and energy. Khosla predicts significant job displacement due to AI advancements but underscores the necessity of redistributing AI-generated wealth, possibly through mechanisms like universal basic income, to mitigate growing inequality. He also discusses the potential of AI in enhancing creativity in music and the pivotal role of breakthrough technologies in addressing climate change, particularly through scalable and economically viable solutions like fusion and geothermal energy. Khosla's optimism about AI extends to its ability to democratize access to personalized services and its pivotal role in the future of transportation and urban infrastructure.

• AI is anticipated to cause significant job displacement over the next 20-25 years.
• AI serves as a tool for productivity growth, but it also contributes to increased inequality within capitalist systems.
• Consideration and accommodation for those disrupted by AI is crucial for making better progress.

"If I'm right, the level of job displacement over 2025 years will be large. AI is a tool for productivity growth. Capitalism does result in more inequality. Almost always, AI will only accentuate that one has to be very considerate of the people being disrupted and accommodate them if you're going to make better progress."

The quote emphasizes the speaker's belief that AI will lead to significant job displacement, which will exacerbate inequality. The speaker stresses the importance of being mindful of those affected by AI-induced disruptions.

• Vinod Khosla is a prominent figure in Silicon Valley, founder of Khosla Ventures, and was a co-founder of Daisy Systems and Sun Microsystems.
• Khosla Ventures has made significant investments in companies like OpenAI, Stripe, DoorDash, and Commonwealth Fusion Systems.

"Today we have a discussion on the future, the future of healthcare, education, climate, energy, and how AI impacts it all. For those that do not know, Vinod is the founder of Khosla Ventures, one of the leading venture firms of the last decade, with investments in OpenAI stripe, DoorDash, Commonwealth fusion Systems, and many more."

The quote introduces Vinod Khosla and highlights his role in shaping the future of various sectors through his venture firm's investments, particularly in AI.

• AI's progress is compared to the early days of the internet, with ChatGPT likened to the "browser moment."
• Technological breakthroughs and hype cycles both contribute to the current attention AI is receiving.
• Real technological progress in AI is distinguished from the hype that can lead to investment bubbles.

"The reason I bring this up is I wrote my first blog on AI. Do we need doctors and do we need teachers? Encapsulating the idea that expertise could be free in 2011 2012. It was pretty controversial then, but it was a similar moment to when we adapted the Internet and DPIP in the sun. And then when chat GBD came out, it became like the browser moment for the Internet."

The quote draws a parallel between early internet adoption and the current evolution of AI, suggesting that we are at a pivotal moment similar to when web browsers first made the internet accessible to the masses.

• Concerns about AI displacing jobs and the potential for regulations to slow down technological adoption are acknowledged.
• Resistance from professionals and industries that feel threatened by AI is expected.
• Addressing the needs and concerns of those disrupted by AI is essential for progress.

"Honestly, technology is very fun to talk about disruption. It's not a lot of fun to be disrupted, and so one has to be very considerate of the people being disrupted and accommodate them if you're going to make better progress."

The quote recognizes the challenges faced by those whose livelihoods are threatened by AI and underscores the need for empathy and support for these individuals.

• AI's potential to increase GDP growth could create the resources necessary to support those displaced by AI through mechanisms like a universal basic income.
• Redistribution of income will be key to ensuring societal happiness and equality in the face of AI-driven economic changes.
• Various approaches to redistribution, such as a robot tax or a social security pool funded by GDP growth, are proposed.

"So my suggestion would be some large percentage of per capita income growth or GDP growth be reserved in a Social Security pool for universal basic income or something like that. There's many ways to redistribute, some more acceptable than others. But happiness in our society will be a function of equality, not just GDP growth."

This quote proposes a solution to the displacement caused by AI through the creation of a social security pool funded by GDP growth, emphasizing the importance of equality for societal happiness.## AI and Income Inequality

• AI is a tool for productivity growth and may accentuate income inequality.
• The benefits of AI should be shared more equally to combat the potential increase in inequality.
• The focus should not be on constraining AI but rather on distributing its benefits more fairly.

"AI will only accentuate that. And so sharing the benefits of AI in a different way will be important."

The quote emphasizes the need for equitable distribution of AI's benefits to mitigate its potential to exacerbate income inequality.

• Western political systems prioritize short-term gains, like job retention, over long-term economic benefits due to democratic pressures.
• China may employ forceful tactics for economic gain, potentially overlooking fair treatment of individuals.
• Politicians are incentivized to avoid job displacement to maintain power, even if it may be economically beneficial in the long run.

"So the western political system will pay more importance to the short term, which is things like job displacement."

This quote highlights the tension between short-term political goals and the long-term economic advantages of adopting AI in Western democracies.

• AI could greatly increase the efficiency of healthcare, allowing for more patient-physician interactions.
• AI is projected to help address the shortage of primary care physicians.
• AI can complement doctors by handling data-intensive tasks, allowing doctors to focus on the human element of care.

"I think we can have an excess even when we increase the number of interactions by five x, because AI can take 80% of that increased load."

This quote suggests that AI could significantly enhance healthcare service levels by taking on a large portion of the workload.

• AI and doctors can form a partnership where AI handles data and doctors provide human care.
• Doctors should be selected for empathy and the ability to provide human care, not just IQ.
• AI cannot replace the human element that is essential in healthcare, such as delivering sensitive news to patients.

"You can't expect your oncologist to be caring, talking about your cancer, and have read the 5000 most recent articles on your cancer, they can't keep that knowledge in their head."

This quote illustrates how AI can support doctors by managing vast amounts of medical knowledge, enabling them to focus on patient care.

• AI can revolutionize the pharmaceutical industry by designing custom proteins for genetic diseases.
• AI's ability to understand and manipulate DNA, RNA, and proteins is a significant advancement.
• Healthcare is one of many sectors that will be transformed by AI in the coming years.

"We will be able to design with AI's help custom solutions because we've essentially solved the protein folding problem."

The quote highlights AI's potential to create tailored treatments for genetic diseases, showcasing its transformative power in healthcare.

• AI innovation is expected to be distributed broadly across various sectors.
• Large language models may initially be dominated by a few major companies.
• There are ongoing efforts to innovate in AI training and curriculum development.
• The future of AI is unpredictable but discoverable, with the best minds working on advancing the field.

"I believe innovation will be spread broadly in different areas."

This quote indicates a belief that AI innovation will not be confined to a few large institutions but will be widespread.

• AI development in healthcare must focus on safety, guardrails, and explainability.
• AI has the potential to provide accessible, affordable care to everyone globally within the next five years.
• Ongoing development is crucial to overcome current limitations and fully realize AI's benefits in healthcare.

"A lot more attention has to be paid to those factors."

The quote stresses the importance of addressing critical issues such as safety and explainability in AI applications within healthcare.

• Market timing is considered, but it is difficult to predict.
• Investments in areas like AI and fusion energy have progressed more rapidly than anticipated.
• The evolution of AI, including the need for computational power and the possibility of analog computing, is a focus of current research.

"Progress has been more rapid, both in AI and infusion, very different areas than I would have expected."

This quote reflects on the unpredictability of technological progress and the rapid advancements in AI and fusion energy.

• Sustainable energy solutions must be economically viable at scale to be adopted globally.
• Subsidies for clean energy should decrease with market scale to remain sustainable.
• The "Chindia price" refers to the affordability of energy solutions in large markets like China and India.

"Energy is such a large scale problem that there's no way it will be traded off."

The quote underscores the necessity for energy solutions to be economically feasible given the vast scale of global energy needs.## Economic Gravity and Technology Scaling

• Subsidies are important for early-stage technology development, but should not be necessary once a technology reaches 5% market share.
• Politicians in developing countries face challenges balancing immediate needs with long-term climate goals.
• Gold consumption is rising in developing regions, indicating economic principles cannot be ignored.
• Technologies must be economically competitive on a global scale to be adopted in countries like India or China.
• Incremental solutions are insufficient for climate change; breakthrough technologies that can scale are needed.
• Investments in technologies like fusion, new plant proteins, and new production techniques for fertilizer and steel are promising.
• Long-term investments in climate technologies can be profitable, with examples like QuantumScape and Impossible Foods showing significant returns.

"Having said that, early subsidies help get technologies develop when they're subscale, but by the time they are 5% of market, they really shouldn't need subsidies at all."

This quote emphasizes the role of subsidies in nurturing nascent technologies until they are capable of capturing a significant market share, at which point they should be self-sustaining.

"For it to be contributing positively to economic development in countries like India or China, it has to be competitive globally with other sources, or it won't be adapted."

This quote outlines the necessity for new technologies to be economically viable on a global scale, particularly in large, developing economies like India and China.

"So we can take small risks and have incremental decline in costs. But that doesn't solve the problem, because it won't be broadly adapted, or we can take larger risks and if successful, really have solution."

The quote suggests that minor cost reductions and low-risk approaches are insufficient for widespread adoption of new technologies; significant risks may be required for substantial solutions.

• A breakthrough with high-temperature superconductors has made fusion energy more feasible.
• The power of the magnet in a fusion reactor is crucial, with stronger magnets allowing for smaller reactors.
• The development of a 20 Tesla magnet by Commonwealth Fusion Systems has accelerated the pace of fusion energy research.
• Rapid experimentation and construction are now possible, potentially leading to positive energy generation within a few years.
• The success in fusion has attracted top talent and spurred the creation of numerous startups in the field.

"Well, there was one breakthrough that enabled fusion to happen, which was high temperature superconductors."

This quote identifies high-temperature superconductors as the key innovation enabling the progress in fusion energy technology.

"With that magnet, the size of the reactor scales to one over Tesla to the power of four. So if you quadruple the power of the magnet, which one can do with high temperature superconductors, the reactor itself becomes one to 50th the size, so 250 times smaller."

The quote explains how the strength of the magnet, made possible by high-temperature superconductors, directly affects the size and scalability of fusion reactors.

• Reducing reliance on oil can decrease international tensions related to strategic resources.
• Innovations in energy technologies could eliminate competition over minerals and metals.
• Retrofitting existing power plants with new energy sources like fusion could transform industries without the need to construct new infrastructure.

"Well, if we can reduce our dependence on oil, we can dramatically reduce international tensions and what are called strategic interests."

This quote highlights the potential geopolitical benefits of reducing dependence on oil through alternative energy sources.

"If you could replace it with a fusion boiler, you wouldn't have to build 5000 new power plants in the US. You just have to build 5000 new boilers, which is less than the number of liberty ships we built in five years during the second World War."

The quote illustrates how the adoption of fusion energy could revolutionize the power industry by upgrading existing plants rather than building new ones, drawing a historical parallel to the production of Liberty ships during WWII.

• Demographics play a significant role in the vibrancy and economic health of a country.
• Aging populations in Europe, China, and Japan are leading to unfavorable dependency ratios.
• Countries like the US and India have more favorable demographics.
• Anti-immigrant sentiment can negatively impact the rejuvenation of societies in countries with aging populations.

"The world needs younger people to have a vibrant society and what is called the dependency ratio, number of people working to support each person not working, whether they're elders or kids."

This quote outlines the importance of a balanced dependency ratio for a vibrant society and the challenges posed by aging populations.

"That dependency ratio in Japan, China, most of Europe is heading in the wrong direction. The US has a reasonable demographic, India has a great demographic."

The quote compares the demographic trends across various regions, highlighting the challenges and opportunities based on the age distribution of their populations.

• India's young demographic and focus on education are seen as major strengths.
• Social inclusion issues, such as the treatment of the Muslim population, could impact India's optimistic outlook.
• India's advantages include a large, educated population, a core of technologists, English as a common language, and democratic values.

"What I love about India is the demographic is young, with a huge focus on learning and education."

This quote expresses optimism about India's future based on its young and education-focused demographic.

"Now, India has pretty significant problems. I think leaving a population like the muslim population behind in India would be a huge disaster and could completely change the optimistic projection I have for India."

The quote acknowledges the potential pitfalls for India's development, particularly the risk of social exclusion and its consequences.

• The nature of technology allows for development in one location and deployment globally.
• India, with its young and talented population, could become a significant source of technological innovation.
• The success of Indian tech talent on the global stage is contingent on appropriate political and policy decisions within India.

"The great thing about technology is you need to develop it once and deploy it 100 times."

This quote emphasizes the scalability of technology and the potential for a single innovation to have a global impact.

"Yes, technology talent is going to be important to make the world a better place, but the talent can be anywhere. And I think India will be an important source, or can be an important source with the right policy."

The quote underscores the importance of technology talent and identifies India as a potential key player in the global tech industry, given the right circumstances.

• AI is advancing in the music industry, allowing for new forms of creation and personalization.
• Artists like Taylor Swift will continue to thrive, but their creativity will be augmented by AI.
• AI enables individuals to create music tailored to their preferences and scenarios.
• The potential for AI in music extends beyond professional artists to empowering everyday individuals.

"So we invested in this area also five years ago, and some founders from Australia came to me and said they wanted to build a top ten music hit generated entirely by an AI."

This quote discusses the investment in AI music technology and the ambitious goal of creating a hit song entirely generated by AI.

"I think at some point you might want music for your brain, the way your brain works and the music you like for a quiet walk or when you want to get energized before athletic event and be personalized to you and can be personalized."

The quote explores the future of music personalization through AI, tailored to individual preferences and activities.

• With the rise of AI-generated content, the challenge of verification and authenticity becomes crucial.
• Ensuring media rights in a world with potentially infinite content supply is complex.

"With the ability to create content that can be very similar to others, verification becomes the most important thing, making sure that it is authentic."

This quote addresses the importance of verifying the authenticity of content in an era where AI can create similar works, highlighting the need for robust verification mechanisms.## CK Twelve and Open Source Content

• CK Twelve is a nonprofit organization run by the speaker's wife.
• It focuses on designing free, open source educational content and personal AI tutors for students.
• The open source license of CK Twelve was changed to prohibit derivative works.
• The prohibition includes derivative algorithms that use the content for training purposes.
• This decision was made years ago in anticipation of future legal complexities.

"Funnily anticipating this world, my wife runs a nonprofit called CK twelve. It's meant to design free content, open source content for everybody, and personal AI tutors for every student. And multiple years ago, we changed our open source license to include a prohibition against derivative works."

The quote explains the proactive measures taken by CK Twelve to protect their content from being used to create derivative works, including AI training algorithms, by altering their open source license accordingly.

• Splash AI trains music from scratch without using any existing music from YouTube or other artists.
• It is completely free of any intellectual property (IP) claims from artists.
• The company creates its own music loops, stems, and voices.
• They also license voices from artists, such as Grimes, for user personalization.

"So in splash AI, we've trained the music from scratch. There is no YouTube music or any artist music used in training our AI, and it's completely IP, free of any artist."

This quote highlights Splash AI's approach to creating music using AI without infringing on existing artists' intellectual property, emphasizing the original creation of music content.

• Human beings value originality in music, which can come from various sources.
• It is uncertain whether AI will surpass human artists in creativity or if it will amplify artists' creativity.
• Value in the music industry may accrue from originality rather than aggregation.
• Value creation is expected across the entire stack, from hardware to aggregation.

"Of music in the end? Human beings love originality. Where that originality comes from, little hard to say."

The speaker suggests that originality is a key factor in where value will accrue in the music industry, though it is uncertain whether AI or enhanced human creativity will be the primary source of this originality.

• The speaker was influenced by a Taylor Swift concert, envisioning enhancements to live performances.
• Holographic displays and music enhancement are among the potential improvements.
• The AI field and pivotal moments, such as visiting the MIT plasma fusion lab, have inspired the speaker.
• Such experiences have convinced the speaker of AI's potential and the importance of making technology more pragmatic and scalable.

"A few years ago I went to a Taylor Swift concert. The concert was great. But standing there watching the experience and the performance, I could think of five ways in which you could enhance that experience."

This quote reflects the speaker's ability to envision technological enhancements in entertainment, using a Taylor Swift concert as an example of where such improvements could be applied.

• Mark Andreessen was intense and passionate about the Internet's potential in the early days.
• The speaker quickly decided to back Mark and Netscape after their initial meeting.
• Andreessen's intensity and vision were evident and compelling.

"He was definitely intense. I remember coming out of the meeting, calling John Doer and saying, let's just do this."

The quote captures the speaker's immediate reaction to Mark Andreessen's intensity and vision for the Internet, leading to the decision to invest in Netscape.

• The speaker believes most cars in cities can be replaced in the next 25 years.
• Glidewise is a startup that aims to transform public transit using self-driving technology.
• The approach differs from Waymo and Cruise, focusing on making public transit cheaper, faster, and on-demand.
• Glidewise has won bids for public transit projects, aiming to increase passenger throughput in cities.

"Self driving cars used in public transit will make public transit cheaper and faster and point to point and on demand."

This quote outlines the speaker's vision for the future of transportation, where self-driving technology is applied to public transit to improve efficiency and accessibility.

• The speaker regrets not seeing the potential of Twitter in 2007.
• At Sun, the potential of routers was overlooked despite their focus on networking.
• The speaker acknowledges making many mistakes but values the willingness to try and potentially fail.

"I remember in 2007 a journalist asked me about Twitter and they interviewed me and they sourced their questions on Twitter in 2007, I think. And I said, interesting, but couldn't see the potential of it."

The speaker reflects on a missed opportunity to recognize the potential of Twitter early on, illustrating the challenges of predicting the success of emerging technologies.

• Research indicates that money contributes to happiness up to a certain societal point.
• Passion for projects, visions, and areas that make life meaningful is correlated with happiness.
• The speaker strives for passion and meaningful work rather than financial success alone.

"Money helps up to a certain point in society and then is not hugely correlated to happiness."

This quote summarizes the speaker's view on the relationship between money and happiness, emphasizing the importance of passion and meaningful pursuits over wealth.