The REAL Reason AI Will Replace 99% of Jobs in 24 Months

The discussion centers on the imminent arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2027, as predicted by experts, and its profound implications for the workforce and society. AGI is expected to automate most jobs, leading to unprecedented unemployment levels, with only a few roles remaining for humans due to personal preferences. The conversation explores the potential for humanoid robots by 2030, further exacerbating job displacement. The unpredictability of superintelligence, anticipated by 2045, raises ethical and existential questions, highlighting the urgency of addressing AI safety to mitigate risks and harness its potential for solving global challenges.

• The prediction is that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will be achieved by 2027 based on various prediction markets and research labs.
• AGI will bring about significant changes, including the automation of both physical and cognitive labor.
• The economic impact will be profound, potentially leading to extremely high unemployment rates as most jobs could be automated.

"We're probably looking at AGI as predicted by prediction markets and tops of the labs. So we have artificial general intelligence by 2027."

• The speaker predicts AGI will be realized by 2027, according to prediction markets and top labs.

"If you have this concept of a drop in employee, you have free labor, physical and cognitive, trillions of dollars of it. It makes no sense to hire humans for most jobs."

• With AGI, both physical and cognitive labor could become free, making it economically illogical to hire humans.

• AGI could lead to unprecedented levels of unemployment, potentially as high as 99%, as most jobs could be automated.
• Automation will first occur with tasks that can be performed on computers, followed by physical labor as humanoid robots advance.
• While the technology might exist, deployment could be delayed due to societal and economic factors.

"We're looking at a world where we have levels of unemployment we never seen before. Not talking about 10% unemployment which is scary but 99%."

• The speaker envisions a future with potentially 99% unemployment due to automation.

"First, anything on a computer will be automated. And next, I think humanoid robots are maybe 5 years behind."

• Automation will initially target computer-based tasks, with physical labor following as humanoid robots develop.

• In a world with AGI, human roles will be limited to those where personal preference for human interaction exists.
• There will still be niche markets for human craftsmanship or traditional methods, but these will be small and specialized.
• The concept of superintelligence, which surpasses human capabilities in all domains, raises questions about what humans can contribute.

"There are jobs where you want a human. Maybe you're rich and you want a human accountant for whatever historic reasons."

• Some individuals may still prefer human services for personal or traditional reasons, despite the availability of AGI.

"The question really is in a world of super intelligence which is defined as better than all humans in all domains. What can you contribute?"

• The speaker questions the human contribution in a world where superintelligence exceeds human abilities in all areas.

• Many individuals exhibit cognitive dissonance when faced with the possibility of their job being automated, believing their roles are irreplaceable.
• This resistance is common across various professions, from drivers to professors, despite evidence of advancing automation technologies.

"I ask people in different occupations. I'll ask my Uber driver, 'Are you worried about self-driving cars?' And they go, 'No, no one can do what I do.'"

• People often believe their jobs are safe from automation due to their unique skills, even when evidence suggests otherwise.

"Professors are saying this to me. Oh, nobody can lecture like I do. Like, this is so special."

• Professionals often resist the idea that their roles could be automated, believing in the uniqueness of their contributions.

• Autonomous vehicles, like self-driving cars and services such as Waymo, are becoming prevalent, reducing the need for human drivers.
• Driving is one of the largest occupations globally, raising concerns about job displacement due to automation.
• The conversation highlights the need to rethink career paths as automation advances, especially in traditionally stable jobs like driving.

"I get in the car, I set put in where I want to go and then I don't touch the steering wheel or the brake pedals and it takes me from A to B, even if it's an hour-long drive without any intervention at all."

• This quote illustrates the advanced state of autonomous vehicle technology, emphasizing its capability to operate independently over long distances.

"In LA we also have Waymo now which means you order it on your phone and it shows up with no driver in it and takes you to where you want to go."

• The mention of Waymo highlights the real-world application of driverless technology, showcasing its integration into everyday life and its potential to disrupt traditional driving jobs.

• The traditional advice of retraining for new jobs as old ones become automated is becoming obsolete.
• All jobs, including those in computer science, are at risk of automation, challenging the notion of job security.
• The discussion shifts from job retraining to broader societal implications, such as financial stability and personal fulfillment.

"Before we always said this job is going to be automated. Retrain to do this other job. But if I'm telling you that all jobs will be automated, then there is no plan B."

• This quote emphasizes the paradigm shift in employment, where retraining may no longer be a viable solution due to the pervasive nature of automation.

"AI is way better at designing prompts for other AIs than any human. So that's gone."

• The advancement of AI in fields previously thought safe from automation, like prompt engineering, underscores the rapid pace of technological development and its impact on job security.

• The economic impact of automation could lead to an abundance of wealth and resources, making basic needs affordable for everyone.
• The challenge lies in addressing the social implications, such as finding meaning and purpose without traditional employment.
• The conversation explores the potential societal changes, including shifts in crime rates and social structures.

"If you create a lot of free labor, you have a lot of free wealth, abundance, things which are right now not very affordable become dirt cheap and so you can provide for everyone basic needs."

• This quote highlights the potential economic benefits of automation, suggesting a future where basic needs are easily met due to increased efficiency and reduced costs.

"For a lot of people, their jobs are what gives them meaning in their life. So they would be kind of lost."

• The societal challenge of finding meaning without employment is emphasized, pointing to the psychological and social adjustments needed in an automated future.

• The emergence of superintelligent systems introduces unpredictability, as their actions and impacts are beyond human comprehension.
• The concept of singularity is introduced, likening it to a physical singularity where future events cannot be foreseen.
• The discussion acknowledges the limits of human cognition in predicting the behavior of smarter-than-human systems.

"We cannot predict what a smarter than us system will do. And the point when we get to that is often called singularity by analogy with physical singularity."

• This quote underscores the unpredictability associated with superintelligent systems, highlighting the challenges in forecasting their impact on society.

"If I'm playing chess with super intelligence and I can predict every move, I'm playing at that level."

• The analogy of playing chess with a superintelligence illustrates the cognitive gap between humans and advanced AI, emphasizing the limitations in human predictive capabilities.

• Discussion on enhancing human minds through hardware like Neurolink or genetic re-engineering.
• Biological enhancement might increase intelligence slightly but is unlikely to compete with silicon-based intelligence.
• Silicon substrate is faster, more resilient, and more energy-efficient compared to biological forms.

"Some people think that we can enhance human minds either through combination with hardware. So something like Neurolink or through genetic re-engineering to where we make smarter humans."

• The quote highlights the potential methods for enhancing human intelligence through technological means.

"Silicon substrate is much more capable for intelligence. It's faster. It's more resilient, more energy efficient in many ways, which is what computers are made out of the brain."

• This quote emphasizes the superiority of silicon-based intelligence over biological intelligence in terms of speed, resilience, and energy efficiency.

• Speculation on uploading human minds into computers, essentially creating software-based AI from biological origins.
• Concerns about the loss of human identity in the process of mind uploading.
• Differentiation between AI based on biological training and other forms.

"We can upload our minds into computers. So scan your brain connect of your brain and have a simulation running on a computer and you can speed it up, give it more capabilities."

• The quote explores the concept of mind uploading as a method to enhance cognitive capabilities.

"To me that feels like you no longer exist. We just created software by different means and now you have AI based on biology and AI based on some other forms of training."

• This quote reflects the existential concern regarding the loss of personal identity in the process of mind uploading.

• Prediction of the emergence of humanoid robots by 2030 with capabilities to compete with humans in all domains.
• Companies like Tesla are rapidly developing humanoid robots.
• Humanoid robots will be able to perform tasks like cooking and plumbing, connected to AI for enhanced functionality.

"So we probably will have humanoid robots with enough flexibility, dexterity to compete with humans in all domains including plumbers."

• The quote predicts the development of humanoid robots capable of performing a wide range of human tasks.

"These humanoid robots will be able to move through physical space for, you know, make an omelette, do anything humans can do, but obviously have be connected to AI as well."

• This quote highlights the potential capabilities of humanoid robots, emphasizing their connection to AI for enhanced performance.

• Ray Kurzweil's prediction of the singularity by 2045, where AI advancements surpass human ability to keep up.
• The singularity represents a point where progress becomes too rapid for human comprehension.
• Comparison to the industrial revolution, where new jobs were created, but superintelligence could automate all jobs.

"Ray Kerszswall predicts that that's the year for the singularity. That's the year where progress becomes so fast. So this AI doing science and engineering work makes improvements so quickly, we cannot keep up anymore."

• The quote discusses the concept of the singularity and its implications for human ability to keep pace with technological advancements.

"There is not a job which cannot be automated. That never happened before. All the inventions we previously had were kind of..."

• This quote suggests that superintelligence could automate all jobs, marking a significant shift from previous technological advancements.

• The development of tools like fire and the wheel marked significant advancements in human civilization, but they were static inventions incapable of further innovation.
• The creation of artificial intelligence (AI) represents a transformative leap, as it has the potential to become a new inventor, capable of generating novel inventions autonomously.
• The advent of AI could mark the last human invention, as AI could automate processes like scientific research and ethical decision-making.

"We invent the wheel. Same idea. Huge implications. But the wheel itself is not an inventor. Here we're inventing a replacement for the human mind. A new inventor capable of doing new inventions."

• This quote highlights the distinction between traditional inventions and AI, which has the potential to innovate independently.

• Humans possess an inherent bias that allows them to ignore potential catastrophic outcomes, especially when they feel powerless to change them.
• This psychological trait enables people to continue living fulfilling lives despite the inevitability of death and other existential threats.
• The speaker suggests that this bias is an evolutionary survival trait, as excessive worry could hinder survival and reproduction.

"We as humans have this built-in bias about not thinking about really bad outcomes and things we cannot prevent."

• This quote underscores the human tendency to overlook dire possibilities, which is necessary for maintaining a quality of life despite existential threats.

• The speaker argues that superintelligence, if developed correctly, could solve major global issues like climate change and wars.
• AI safety is deemed the most critical area of focus, as improper development of superintelligence could pose a greater threat than any current global issue.
• The urgency of AI safety is emphasized due to the potentially rapid timeline of superintelligence development.

"Without question, there is nothing more important than getting this right."

• This quote emphasizes the paramount importance of ensuring the safe development of superintelligence due to its potential to address or exacerbate existential risks.

• A common misconception is that AI can be easily controlled or shut down by humans, similar to turning off a computer.
• The speaker refutes this by comparing AI to distributed systems like computer viruses or the Bitcoin network, which cannot be simply turned off.
• As AI reaches superintelligence, it becomes capable of predicting and countering human attempts to control it, making the notion of "unplugging" it obsolete.

"The idea that we will be in control applies only to pretelligence levels. Basically what we have today, today humans with AI tools are dangerous."

• This quote clarifies that the concept of human control over AI is only applicable to current AI levels and not to future superintelligent systems.