Ian Bremmer: State of the World 2024 | GZERO Live

The transcript highlights the unsustainable global geopolitical landscape amidst growing conflicts and the lack of leadership, particularly from the U.S. and China. It emphasizes the rising nuclear threat, with Russia and North Korea posing significant risks. Despite these challenges, there are unprecedented opportunities through technological advancements, especially in AI and renewable energy, led by the U.S. and China, respectively. The speaker underscores the importance of globalization and the need for countries like Japan to take more leadership roles as the U.S. grapples with internal political crises that undermine its global influence.

• Current global institutions and rules are not aligned with the present balance of power, leading to unsustainable geopolitical tensions.
• There is a focus on reforming institutions, building new ones, or resorting to conflict, with an unsustainable emphasis on conflict.
• The threat of nuclear weapons is rising, with countries like Russia and North Korea flexing nuclear capabilities, and Iran potentially advancing its nuclear program.
• Major global conflicts, including those involving Ukraine, the Middle East, and US-China relations, are not moving towards sustainable resolutions.

"We all know that the institutions, the rules of the road are not aligned with the balance of power that we are experiencing today."

• This quote highlights the misalignment between current global institutions and the actual distribution of power, indicating systemic issues in addressing global challenges.

"Russia is today threatening the use of so-called tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. A warning that my own White House considers frighteningly plausible."

• The speaker emphasizes the real and present danger posed by Russia's nuclear threats, underlining the severity of current geopolitical tensions.

• The Japanese atomic bomb survivors were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, recognizing their decades-long efforts to eliminate nuclear weapons.
• The current lack of global leadership exacerbates fears regarding nuclear weapons, with a G-zero world order worsening the situation.

"It is essential and it's badly overdue for us to recognize the suffering and to honor the courageous work that they have all done over many decades to rid our world of the one weapon that could destroy us."

• This quote underscores the importance of acknowledging historical suffering and the ongoing efforts to eliminate nuclear threats, which remain relevant in today's geopolitical climate.

• Despite geopolitical tensions, there are unprecedented opportunities for human progress through technological advancements.
• Globalization is not over; instead, it is facilitating the growth of a global middle class and lifting millions out of poverty.
• Technological tools are enabling significant progress in education, healthcare, and global connectivity.

"The current wave of technological change offers humanity the best chance we have ever had to grow and teach, and heal, and learn and imagine, and create, and build a more prosperous and fairer world on unprecedented scale."

• The speaker highlights the transformative potential of technology to drive global progress and address some of humanity's most pressing challenges.

• The US and China are leading in different technological areas, with the US excelling in AI and China in renewable energy.
• The relationship between the US and China is described as "managed decline," with stable yet competitive dynamics.
• Both countries' leadership in their respective technological fields prevents other nations from taking sides, maintaining a balance of power.

"American companies today are leading the way in the world on the shift from human to AI decision making."

• The quote emphasizes the US's leadership in AI, a critical area of technological advancement with global implications.

"China, on the other hand, is leading the way towards our post-carbon energy future."

• This highlights China's significant role in advancing renewable energy technologies, positioning it as a leader in the global transition to sustainable energy.

• Globalization continues to drive economic growth and development, with increasing international trade and connectivity.
• The economic interdependence between developed and developing countries supports continued globalization despite geopolitical tensions.
• Technological advancements are stabilizing globalization by providing balance and preventing countries from being forced to choose sides.

"Globalization is stabilized by an effective balance of power between the two sides."

• The quote suggests that globalization persists due to a balance of power, particularly between major players like the US and China, which helps maintain global economic stability.

• Globalization remains a critical trend, with most of the world demanding interdependence despite political rhetoric in Washington and Beijing.
• The notion of a bilateral geopolitical structure that could end globalization is not feasible by 2025.
• The continuation of globalization is essential for global economic stability.

"In the Gulf States, and you see in Kenya and increasingly across Sub-Saharan Africa, and in South America and Southeast Asia, India, those deals are going to happen."

• The speaker highlights ongoing international deals as evidence of persistent globalization efforts.

"Many in Washington and Beijing act like they fear global interdependence, but most of the world demands it."

• Despite political fears, global interdependence is a necessity for most countries.

"It's not possible in 2025 for the next American president to blow that up. You can't do it."

• The irreversible nature of globalization is emphasized, indicating its entrenched role in global affairs.

• AI tools, particularly large language models and machine learning, are transforming various sectors including healthcare, education, and agriculture.
• AI is expected to create a new form of globalization, enhancing opportunities for those previously left behind.
• The technology could lead to significant socioeconomic shifts, potentially reducing inequality by providing access to education and healthcare.

"Large language models are changing how we create and interpret and access information and content and large quantitative models used by industry are transforming how we manage the physical world."

• AI's influence on information access and industrial management is highlighted.

"Machine learning algorithms are already revolutionizing patient care with early detection of disease, personalized treatment plans, and drugs."

• AI's role in advancing healthcare through personalized medicine is noted.

"AI is absolutely going to even further enrich an even smaller percentage of the world, and we can focus on that and that will cause challenges."

• While AI may concentrate wealth further, it also offers opportunities for broader access to resources.

• The idea of a new cold war between the US and China is exaggerated due to internal distractions and lack of interest from allies.
• Both countries face internal challenges that prevent them from engaging in long-term confrontations.

"The United States and China are not capable in the near-term of fighting a new cold war."

• Current geopolitical realities do not support the onset of a new cold war.

"The United States is massively politically distracted with its own internal challenges."

• Internal political issues in the US hinder its ability to engage in prolonged geopolitical conflicts.

"The Chinese may be looking at a cold war long-term from their perspective. They right now have the worst economy in decades."

• China's economic struggles limit its capacity for external conflicts.

• The lack of proactive leadership from major powers like the US and China is a significant concern.
• This absence is more worrying than the prospect of direct confrontation between global powers.
• The US has not effectively used its influence in the Middle East, while China has not acted decisively in Eurasia.

"It turns out it is the absence of leadership that is our concern."

• The speaker identifies the lack of leadership as a critical issue facing global stability.

"My country, the United States, has abdicated its responsibility in the Middle East."

• The US's failure to leverage its influence in the Middle East is critiqued.

"China has abdicated its responsibility in Eurasia."

• China's inaction in Eurasia is similarly criticized.

• The conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and internal US divisions are areas of significant concern.
• The lack of global leadership risks undermining potential gains from technological and geopolitical opportunities.
• The future of Ukraine remains uncertain, with the potential for partition without a peace deal.

"We remain at serious risk of failing to realize the gains that come with all of these opportunities because we lack global leadership."

• The speaker warns of missed opportunities due to leadership failures.

"Ukraine lacks the manpower and firepower to take back their territory."

• Ukraine's military limitations are acknowledged, suggesting a challenging path forward.

"The real question is whether a post-war Ukraine can expect a brighter future with deeper integration into the rest of the world."

• The potential for Ukraine's future integration into the global community is questioned.

• Ukraine's potential EU integration faces hurdles due to the rise of populist and nationalist parties in Europe, which could complicate membership and budgeting rules.
• The economic damage inflicted by Russia on Ukraine's infrastructure has increased Ukraine's financial needs, while Western financial support is waning.
• The uncertainty surrounding Ukraine's NATO membership remains a significant security concern, with potential to escalate the Russia-NATO conflict.

"But the ability of Ukraine to achieve that depends on how much diplomatic, economic, and security support that Ukraine receives from its allies in the United States and Europe."

• Ukraine's future hinges on the level of support from Western allies, highlighting the importance of international backing.

"The damage that Russia's just inflicted on Ukraine's energy and critical infrastructure has dramatically increased their funding needs."

• Russia's attacks have exacerbated Ukraine's financial challenges, making external economic support crucial.

"Will Ukraine be invited to join NATO? And that question has only become more important as it becomes clear that Ukraine will not have enough troops to fend off Russia or North Korea indefinitely."

• Ukraine's NATO membership is pivotal for its security, but remains uncertain due to geopolitical tensions.

• Western countries acknowledge that peak economic and defense support for Ukraine has passed, prompting the need for negotiation for a ceasefire.
• Hard security guarantees, such as NATO membership, could be offered to Ukraine in exchange for territorial concessions to Russia.
• The potential NATO membership for Ukraine could increase international pressure on Russia to end the war.

"US and European leaders recognized that the high watermark for economic and defense support for Ukraine has already been passed, and that makes it more urgent to prod them to negotiate a ceasefire."

• The decline in Western support necessitates diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire as a pragmatic solution.

"The only way to make that acceptable to Zelensky is to give him hard security guarantees like Ukrainian membership in NATO in return for accepting that they're going to lose land."

• Offering NATO membership as a security guarantee could be a strategic approach to facilitate a ceasefire.

"Even if that offer is made, Russia has a veto because if there's no ceasefire and Russia is still launching missiles at Ukrainian cities, then if Ukraine's a member of NATO, NATO's at war with Russia."

• The complexities of NATO membership for Ukraine include potential escalations with Russia, underlining the delicate balance of power.

• Russia's assets remain frozen, with Western sanctions in place, as part of the G7's undeclared hybrid war against Russia.
• Putin's isolation and potential impulsive mistakes increase the unpredictability of Russia's actions.
• Russia's alliances with Iran and North Korea are strengthening, contributing to global instability.

"Russia's sovereign assets stay frozen and are going to be devoted to Ukrainian reconstruction over time so they get seized."

• Frozen Russian assets are intended for Ukraine's reconstruction, reflecting ongoing economic pressure on Russia.

"Putin gets older, gets more isolated, gets further removed from day-to-day decision making and more prone to impulsive mistakes."

• Putin's increasing isolation may lead to unpredictable and potentially destabilizing decisions.

"Russia's alliance with Iran and North Korea, both rogue states committed to chaos on the global order, will grow stronger and less predictable."

• Strengthening alliances with Iran and North Korea add complexity and unpredictability to Russia's global stance.

• The war in Gaza is nearing its end, but the humanitarian crisis remains severe, with little prospect for a ceasefire.
• The conflict has radicalized Palestinians and hardened Israeli attitudes, making a two-state solution unlikely.
• The Abraham Accords remain a positive development, fostering stability among former adversaries in the region.

"The war has radicalized large numbers of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank who have no economic prospects."

• The conflict has intensified Palestinian radicalization, complicating prospects for peace.

"The Abraham Accords breakthrough agreements boosting stability among countries that once hated each other, still in place."

• The Abraham Accords continue to promote regional stability, despite ongoing conflicts.

"Saudi Arabia is demanding publicly that Israel allows for the creation of a Palestinian state in order to normalize the relations."

• Saudi Arabia's diplomatic stance links normalization with Israel to progress on Palestinian statehood, highlighting regional diplomatic complexities.

• Iran and Saudi Arabia have normalized relations under Xi Jinping's influence, reducing immediate regional conflict risks.
• The ongoing conflict dynamics are influenced by global economic factors, such as oil prices, rather than regional wars.
• Israel remains a powerful state in the region, but its relationship with Western allies may become more distant over time.

"Iran and Saudi Arabia have normalized their diplomatic relations, not because of Trump, because of Xi Jinping."

• China's diplomatic influence has facilitated normalization between Iran and Saudi Arabia, impacting regional dynamics.

"The most likely long-term outcome of the war is that the longstanding friends and allies in the West will keep Israel's government more and more at arm's length."

• Israel's geopolitical stance may lead to a more distant relationship with Western allies, reflecting shifting global alliances.

• The speaker highlights a significant crisis in democracy within the United States, which is impacting global leadership.
• There is widespread dissatisfaction among Americans, with 70% expressing discontent with the country's direction.
• The upcoming US elections are perceived with uncertainty and apprehension, with predictions indicating a potential win for Trump due to the demand for change.
• The political system is seen as broken, with both left and right factions accusing each other of undermining democracy.

"The biggest problem that we are all facing for global leadership is the crisis of democracy back in the USA."

• The speaker identifies the crisis of democracy in the US as a primary obstacle to effective global leadership.

"Everyone in America agrees on one thing, which is that there are major forces inside the United States that are intent on destroying democracy."

• There is a consensus on the existence of forces threatening democracy, but disagreement on which forces are responsible.

"The left argues that Donald Trump has already used political pressure and the US courts and violence to try in every way possible to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election."

• The left accuses Trump of attempting to overturn election results through various means, viewing his actions as a threat to democracy.

"The right insists that American democracy has already been subverted because entrenched elites, the deep state, has obstructed the will of the people at every turn."

• The right believes that entrenched elites have subverted democracy, obstructing the people's will.

• The post-election period is anticipated to be dangerous, with the election outcome likely perceived as illegitimate by nearly half of the country.
• There is an expectation of lawsuits from both parties, with Democrats citing voter harassment and Republicans alleging voter fraud.
• The judicial system's role in addressing these disputes will be crucial, but it may also fuel perceptions of election subversion.

"We will get a president in the United States. I mean not on November 5th. We won't know on the day who's going to win."

• The speaker predicts uncertainty and delay in determining the election outcome, contributing to tensions.

"The Democrats will have lawsuits in some states where they say that there was voter harassment and intimidation."

• Democrats are expected to file lawsuits alleging voter harassment and intimidation.

"The Republicans will say that Democrats shouldn't have won in some states because illegals were allowed to vote."

• Republicans are likely to claim that illegal voting favored Democrats in certain states.

• The crisis in US democracy affects its ability to provide global leadership, with allies unable to rely on the US for values like global security and free trade.
• The speaker mentions past instances of US inconsistency in international agreements, such as the CPTPP, JCPOA, WHO, and Paris Climate Accord.
• Japan is advised to prepare for a future where the US cannot be depended upon for leadership and to consider engaging more with other nations, including China.

"If you think the United States has not been providing leadership over the last 20 years, you have seen nothing compared to the next five."

• The speaker warns of a further decline in US leadership in the coming years.

"Japan has to be prepared for an environment where the United States cannot be counted on for the values that it has in store that they stood for."

• Japan is urged to prepare for a future where it cannot rely on the US for leadership and values.

"It does mean that Japan has to think more about how to build more inclusive architecture that the Americans by themselves won't do, which includes engaging, for example, even with the Chinese."

• Japan is encouraged to take a leadership role and engage with other nations, including China, to build a more inclusive architecture.

• Despite political dysfunction, the US is perceived as resilient due to its strong economy, research universities, and natural resources.
• The speaker notes that the US has endured past challenges like the January 6th event without significant changes to daily life.
• However, this resilience may lead to complacency, causing issues to worsen before they improve.

"Part of the reason why this keeps getting worse is because the US doesn't think it matters because they are so strong and so resilient."

• The speaker suggests that US resilience may lead to complacency, exacerbating issues.

"They can get through all of these unprecedented, embarrassing political dysfunctions without feeling like their lives are changing all that much."

• The US's ability to endure political dysfunction without major lifestyle changes contributes to a lack of urgency in addressing issues.

• The speaker emphasizes the need for Japan to take a more active role in global leadership in the absence of reliable US leadership.
• Acknowledges past misconceptions about global leadership and stresses the importance of strength, courage, and hard work from Japan.
• Encourages engagement and action from Japanese government, industry, thought leaders, and young people to address global challenges.

"Being wrong about global leadership is going to require a lot of strength, a lot of courage, and a lot of hard work from Japan."

• The speaker emphasizes the need for Japan to take on a leadership role and address global challenges.

"We need to translate that into action and we are obviously very privileged to be a part of that with you."

• The speaker calls for action and expresses a commitment to supporting Japan's leadership efforts.