Are the Hawks Going Deep in September? | Week 1 2024 Finals Tips

Peps discusses the week one matchups of the 2024 AFL finals, highlighting four key games. He predicts Port Adelaide will triumph over Geelong, emphasizing their strong form and attacking prowess. The Bulldogs vs. Hawks match is expected to be tightly contested, with Peps favoring the Bulldogs. He foresees Sydney edging out GWS in the Battle of the Bridge due to key player returns. Lastly, Peps anticipates a blowout victory for Brisbane over Carlton, citing Brisbane's superior fitness and form. He concludes by encouraging viewers to join for further analysis and to stay connected on social media.

• The first game of the 2024 AFL finals kicks off on Thursday night at 7:40 p.m. at the Rade Oval.
• The match features Port Adelaide Power vs. Geelong Cats.
• Both teams are competing for a top-four position.

"It's peps and I'm here with tip outs week one of the 2024 finals selections for a massive four games of AFL football and it's all kicking off tomorrow night Thursday 7:40 p.m. at the rade oval the port power the jalon cats."

• Introduction to the upcoming match and its significance in the finals.

• Port Adelaide has been exceptional over the last nine weeks, winning eight out of their last nine games.
• They have secured a home final but historically have struggled in home finals.
• Port Adelaide is the top team for goal differential in 2024.

"Port La been nothing but Sensational over the last nine weeks won eight out of their last nine games they've got their home final it has been a bit of a bogey game for them having home finals but this will get them into the prelim and their form has been Sensational of late."

• Port Adelaide's recent form and challenges in home finals.

"They've been the number one shot they've been the number one shots at goal differential team in 2024."

• Highlight of Port Adelaide's offensive strength.

• Port Adelaide's forward line includes Dixon, Rioli, Georgiadis, and Burn Jones.
• Geelong needs to decide whether to position Tom Stewart in the midfield or defense.
• The decision on Stewart's position could impact Port Adelaide's scoring opportunities.

"When you go a forward line of Dixon rioli georgiadis burn Jones they're going to continue that former round jalong really needs to slot down tighten up on these guys and there's a massive decision that they need to make do they decide to send Tom Stewart into the Midfield or do they send him back."

• Analysis of Port Adelaide's forward line and Geelong's defensive strategy.

• Port Adelaide's midfield features Rosie, Butters, Horn Francis, and Wines.
• Geelong's midfield includes Dangerfield, Holmes, Duncan, and Clark.
• Geelong also has Myers and Close pushing up from the half-forward line, supporting Jeremy Cameron.

"It's Rosie Butters horn Francis and wines versus dangerfields homes Duncan and Clark they do have the double active Myers and close pushing up on the half forward line getting around the contest and streaming back with great ball use into the Ford 50 and that's going to support Jeremy Cameron."

• Comparison of the midfield lineups and their respective roles in the game.

• Geelong's Jeremy Cameron will be challenged by Port Adelaide's Aliir and Zer Thatcher.
• The game could hinge on the effectiveness of these defensive matchups.

"That's going to support Jeremy Cameron Sangle against the challenge of alier and Zer Thatcher down there."

• Key defensive matchups that could determine the outcome of the game.

• The game might be decided by the coaching strategies of Geelong's Chris Scott and Port Adelaide's Ken Hinkley.
• Both coaches have different approaches and their decisions will be crucial.

"I really think this game could be won by who is going to be the better coach in the Box you've got the Premiership coach from jalong Mr Scott versus Mr hinley the jalong legend."

• The potential impact of coaching on the game's result.

• The analysis suggests a competitive match with the potential for high scoring.
• The outcome may depend on coaching decisions and defensive strategies.

"So who takes this one out I'm pic."

• Indication of the speaker's prediction without a definitive conclusion.

• Prediction for the Game
  • PA predicted to win by 20 points.
  • Jason Horn Francis expected to have a breakout final, solidifying his status as one of the game's best.

"King PA to win this one by 20 points and Jason Horn Francis to put a stamp on the game as one of the game's best by having a breakout final."

• Significance of Jason Horn Francis
  • Emphasis on his potential to become one of the top players through his performance in the finals.

"Jason Horn Francis to put a stamp on the game as one of the game's best by having a breakout final."

• Excitement and Anticipation
  • Game scheduled for Friday at 7:40 p.m.
  • Both teams are exciting and competitive, making it a must-watch game.

"If you're going to be watching this game you are going to be a winner because they are both exciting all over the round."

• Key Players and Matchups
  • Premiership player Mitchell vs. Premiership coach Beverage.
  • Speed and skill are prominent in both teams.
  • Dary, Jamara, Norton, West, and Whitman expected to challenge Hawks' backline.
  • Hawks' running and carry could exploit Bulldogs if they lack pressure.

"You got the Premiership player in Mitchell versus the Premiership coach in Beverage. Speed and skill ooze out of both teams and this is going to be a tight game of the weekend."

"Dary, Jamara, Norton combined with West and Whitman is going to cause headaches for the backline for the Hawks."

"Don't you think the Hawks running carry will catch the dogs out if they don't have the pressure gauge set to 100 for 100% of the game?"

• Impact Players for the Hawks
  • Jenan, Watson, Char, and Moore (All Australian) expected to perform well.
  • Importance of the Bont (Bontempelli) for Bulldogs' success.

"Jenan and Watson they'll be loving it down forward with Char and don't forget Moore the All Australian they'll be wanting to swoop on this."

"You got to watch out for the man who we haven't spoken about yet, the Bont. Everybody loves the Bont, we want him to have another great final series."

• Outcome and Predictions
  • Bulldogs predicted to win by 8 points.
  • The winner of this game expected to reach the preliminary finals.
  • Hawks disadvantaged without Will Day.

"Whoever wins this game will make a preliminary final but without Will Day, the Hawks' season will be no night and the Dogs will run out a winner by eight points."

• Game Overview
  • Scheduled for Saturday afternoon at 3:20 p.m.
  • Historical context: GWS holds a 3-0 lead in finals against Sydney.

"Saturday afternoon 3:20 p.m. GWS versus Sydney at the G. The Battle of the Bridge is happening all over again, it's finals time where GWS hold a three to zero lead."

• Sydney's Form and Key Players
  • Recent improvement in form for Sydney.
  • Papley's return expected to spark the forward line.

"Sydney finally got a little bit of form back over the last number of weeks and they're going to get a few more people back in, especially Papley who's going to lead that little spark in the forward line that they haven't had over the last number of weeks."

"He's had the week off."

• Sydney's Strengths:
  • Strong performance at the Sydney Cricket Ground.
  • Consistent record for the majority of the year.
  • Recent return to form after a stumble.

"They do play the Sydney cricket ground better than anyone and we know that they love the record they have been the best team for virtually three quarters of the year they had the bit of a stumble a number of weeks ago but I think they're in a back bit of form."

• Sydney excels at their home ground and has a strong season record, indicating their potential dominance.

• GWS Overview:

  • Known for being a well-rounded team.
  • Key players like Toby Green and Jesse Hogan are critical.
  • Strong midfield presence with Green, Whitfield, and Cornelio.

"Toby Green has been a little bit lackluster but he loves finals we know what he's done over the previous years Jesse Hogan off his Coleman winning uh year will not just want to make a statement throughout the season he'll want to dominate the finals against the uh Sydney backline green rolling through the middle Whitfield rolling through the middle Cornelio rolling through there you've got Taylor down back there's just so much to like about the gws."

• Despite some inconsistencies, GWS has key players who perform well in finals and a strong midfield.

• Final Prediction:

  • The inclusion of key players like Peple for Sydney.
  • Sydney's defensive strength.

"Originally was going to go with gws to win this one but I've had a bit of a think about it and looking at the ends coming in for Sydney they haven't been the most heavily scored team this year for a reason and get peple back in there is going to add a bit of extra spark so I'm going Sydney to win this one by no more than two goals."

• Sydney's recent form and strategic player inclusions lead to a predicted narrow win.

• Historical Context:
  • Previous close encounters between the Blues and the Lions.
  • Notable games include a prelim final comeback by the Giants and a close game early in the year.

"The last two games these two teams have played up at the jabat toire have been cers last year was the prelim final where the blues got out to a fiveg goal lead for the Giants to claw back and win that one and then there was a close game at the start of the Year where the blues scraped time."

• Previous matches have been tightly contested, with dramatic comebacks and narrow wins.

• Current Form and Prediction:

  • Brisbane's recent struggles in front of goal.
  • Expectation of a significant performance turnaround.

"I actually think it won't be close this will be the blowout of the weekend this could actually get a little bit ugly for two main reasons the Brisbane lines haven't been in haven't been fantastic in front of goal preferably for the last six weeks it has to click sooner or later when you get enough shots in front of goal those points start turning into goals."

• Despite recent inefficiencies, Brisbane is predicted to have a breakout performance, potentially leading to a lopsided game.

• Brisbane Lions have a versatile spread of goal kickers including Hipwood and Danher.
• Additional key players include Barry, Raina, McCluggage, Zorko, and Neale.
• The team has numerous options at their disposal, enhancing their strategic flexibility.

"They keep that rapid fire the spread of goal kickers across the board whether it's Hipwood, whether it's Danher, it doesn't matter. You've got Barry, so many options available at your disposal. Remember you got Raina run there, McCluggage, Zorko, Loy Neil, there's just so many options they've got at their disposal."

• Brisbane's diverse offensive capabilities are highlighted, emphasizing their numerous scoring threats.

• Carlton Blues are expected to bring back five to six players who haven't played recently.
• The return of Docherty is anticipated to give an emotional boost to the team.
• Concerns are raised about the impact of integrating multiple returning players in high-pressure finals.

"The Blues are going to be probably bringing back maybe five to six players who haven't played for quite a while. Docherty is back in, that's going to give them an emotional boost."

• The emotional uplift from Docherty's return is acknowledged, but the challenge of reintegrating multiple players is also noted.

• Finals increase pressure and decision-making requirements by 20 to 30%.
• Fitness and endurance become crucial as the game progresses.
• Brisbane is seen to have more fit and battle-hardened players, likely giving them an advantage.

"Finals goes up another 20 to 30% in pressure in decision making, and you're going to get worn out a lot quicker. It's really hot nice and early, but as the game wears on, the fitter will survive."

• The elevated intensity of finals and the importance of fitness are emphasized.

• There is uncertainty about whether Kerno will play due to a rumored injury.
• If Kerno plays with a compromised ankle, he might become a liability.
• Harris Andrews is expected to capitalize on Kerno's potential weaknesses.

"It be interesting to see if Kerno plays. Rumor is he might not be. At this stage, he is, but Kerno, McKay, I think it would be a liability if Kerno goes in half-hearted because with a dodgy ankle, he'll get caught out very early, and Harris Andrews will have an absolute blind off him."

• The potential negative impact of Kerno's injury on his performance and the advantage it could give to Harris Andrews is discussed.

• The prediction favors Brisbane Lions winning comfortably, possibly by 30 to 40 points.
• The Lions' fitness and battle readiness are expected to help them stretch out in the back end of the game.

"The Lions, I reckon, will take this one out quite comfortably, and I reckon this could be a 30 to 40 pointer."

• The expectation of a decisive win for Brisbane Lions is highlighted.

• Listeners are encouraged to join the podcast every Monday night for reviews and previews of the finals.
• The podcast is available on multiple platforms including YouTube, Facebook, and TikTok.
• Listeners are invited to like, subscribe, and share the podcast.

"Make sure that you join Jay Dog and I every Monday night for our review of this week of finals and then our preview heading into week two. Make sure to like, subscribe, YouTube, Facebook, TikTok, we're all there, and make sure you tell someone else about how good we are."

• The call to action for audience engagement and platform availability is emphasized.